EUR/USD: What American military intentions in Iran?

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On the pair of Euro / dollar currencies, the system is in the immediate balance, but the forces involved are important. On the one hand, a pressure is exercised on the single currency, one of the most reliable barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets. And on the other, the greenback also suffered from an intense pressure force due to its decoration mechanics with the price of a barrel, upstring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

Bloads are immediately anxious as to a potential direct military intervention of the American army in the conflict. On this point, Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM wants to be rather reassuring:

“For the markets, the question is what magnitude will be the American commitment in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Hence the feverishness observed yesterday. For the moment, this is limited to the supply of strategic information to the Israeli government and the transfer of military aircraft, especially bombers, in the bases of the Gulf and especially to Diego Garcia. Investors fear the blocking of the Drait of Ormuz.

Yesterday the Fed completed a new monetary policy committee, which ended up without surprise by a status quo on rates, enough to feed the ire of D Trump, who continues to put pressure on J “Too Late” Powell, as he nicknamed it with contempt.

“Investors have well felt that it is above all the commercial policy that worries the president of the Fed in relation to inflation. And the markets do not like this short -term situation because the Fed has lowered its growth forecast for this year (1.4% vs 1.7% in March) and slightly raised its forecast of unemployment rate …”, comments Alexandre Baradez, market analyst for IG France.

Bover will be deprived of this landmark this Thursday from Wall Street, whose doors will remain closed this June 19, Juneteenth National Independence Day, also known as the Liberty Day (Freedom Day), the day of emancipation (Emancipation Day), or even Jubilee Day (Jubilee Day).

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the decision of monetary polite as a priority, of the Bank of England. Note that the Swiss National Bank this morning communicated on a maintenance at 0% of its main rent of the franc. Yesterday on this statistical front, the final data for consumer prices for the month of May did not rule out an iota compared to the first estimates, at +2.3% annual excluding power, energy, alcohol and tobacco. Weekly registrations for unemployment benefits are also perfectly emerged in the target at 245,000 new units.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1470 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics