EUR/USD: Technical supports remain solid

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The euro resumed a puff of oxygen, retracing a large part of its side navigation strip between $ 1,1460 and $ 1,1674, in the wake of the white house of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

As a reminder this weekend, targeted strikes were ordered by the White House on Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

But the burials are entitled to question themselves on the level of damage suffered by Iranian nuclear installations, and the length of the delay consecutively taken by Tehran in its process of finalization of the nuclear weapon.

Donald Trump said on the night of Monday to Tuesday that the two countries had accepted a cease-fire. Tel Aviv then accused Iran of having broken this agreement and the two countries continue to attack each other, causing the ire of the owner of the White House. However, “we have attended a fairly remarkable de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East in the last 12 hours,” observes Deutsche Bank.

In the statistical chapter, Monday the operators on currencies were able to read the first estimates of activity barometers (PMI) for services and industry in the euro zone. No notable surprise on the scale of the entire monetary union, the results proving to be very close to the consensus. Note a pleasant surprise on the side of the component of the German services, stands out at 49.4, a level close to the 50 points bar which as a reminder constitutes by construction a separation between contraction (below) and an expansion (above).

“If the situation seems to improve in Germany, France is struggling, on the other hand, to find a certain momentum. We can hardly hope for the prosecution, in the second half, of the renewed expansion highlighted in the first quarter by the official data relating to GDP (+ 0.6 %), which also reflected exceptional circumstances, such as an unexpected rebound in Irish growth. Report, the prospects for activity at twelve months having indeed improved while employment continued to progress during the month, “commented Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist in Hamburg Commercial Bank.

Note the marked disappointment yesterday concerning the confidence index of American households (Conference Board), which reflected at 93 points, against a target (the consensus) at 99.5.

On the monetary aspect, “faithful to his mantra of the moment, Jerome Powell persists in his posture of strategic patience. Faced with inflation deemed too uncertain, the impact of customs duties difficult to quantify, to a globally resilient economy and to a labor market far from the break, the president of the American institution does not see any reason to modify the monetary policy and does not want to react prematurely” Note Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.

This is for the moment the meaning of the message he sends in front of parliamentarians, while the traditional semi -annual hearing of the boss of the Fed is completed this Wednesday.

To follow at 4:00 p.m. new housing sales across the Atlantic.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1610 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday, June 12, the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential. In the immediate future, a continuation of the oscillations without amplitude, in lateral technical camisole, is envisaged.

This technical camisole ($ 1,1460 – $ 1.1674) was confirmed, its amplitude having been traced in a few hours, with confirmation value. For the moment, the spot aligns the stars doji in the tops of canal.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics