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The upper bias of the pair of currencies remained undisputed, the spot playing above its mobile average at 50 days (in orange) since February 13.
“The US dollar index has dropped approximately 8 % since the start of the year. With an American debt of $ 37,000 billion and interest payments exceeding $ 1,000 billion per year, the risk of insolvency of the United States must at least be considered a future possibility,” warns Amadeo surrounding, Head of Systematic Equities, Mark Nash, Fixed Income – Alternatives, and Ned Naylor -Leyland, Investment Manager, Gold & Silver. in Jupiter am.
“The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) did not keep its promises as to the level of savings it would be able to achieve, and Elon Musk, who directed it, has left it. In the meantime, the” One Big Beautiful Bill “bill should add several thousand billions of dollars to the national debt of the United States during the next decade”.
In the immediate future, employment will be the statistical highlight of the weekend, with the publication this Thursday afternoon of the NFP report (Non farm payrolls). Bover will be all the more attentive since the investigation of the private Human Resources Cabinet ADP disappointed yesterday.
The unemployment rate, in particular, could have direct repercussions over 10 years (treasury bills for 10 years) and the probabilities of drop in rates in late July, and at the end of September. In the immediate future, and before, therefore, the publication of the NFP, the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group figures at 23.3% the probabilities of monetary easing at the end of this month.
“If the figures for the employment report at 2:30 p.m. are clearly standing below expectations, the pressure will increase on the Fed for a drop in rate from July”, analyzes Alexandre Baradez (IG France).
“It would also be a delicate scenario to manage for the FED: what if the data on employment deteriorates … but that it still does not have enough data on the risk of rebound in inflation linked to customs taxes? Conversely a report on solid employment would probably definitively rule out the (very low) probability of a drop in rate in July … and Jerome Powell will suffer the pressure of Donald Trump.”
The unemployment rate is awaited slightly increased to 4.3% of the active population.
“The tension does not fall back, Donald Trump still called this night to the” immediate “resignation of Jerome Powell, a few days after having described him as” stupid person “. And the president of the Fed cannot count on the possible support of other members of the Trump administration: whether it is the secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, the secretary of the trade Howard Lutnick, the economic advisor at the White House Kevin Hassett Still the vice-president, everyone calls Jerome Powell to lower rates. “
Recall that Wall Street will remain closed on Friday July 4 (American national holiday), which explains the publication one day earlier than usual with the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls). The closure will also be anticipated this Thursday (7:00 p.m. Paris time).
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1790 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).
The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).
The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1791 USD. The price of courses in our Haussier scenario is 1,2624 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1569 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 833 pips and the risk of loss is 222 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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