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We will first note the holiday and unemployed character of this July 4 across the Atlantic for the national holiday (Independence Day). Wall Street, A which had an early closure yesterday afternoon, will be closed. Consequently, volumes should remain limited this Friday on the Paris Stock Exchange. The operators will therefore continue to digest the content of very good quality of the NFP report (Non farm payrolls) Published yesterday.
This inventory of American private employment health has sent excellent signals.
First education: the unemployment rate went from 4.3% to 4.1%, beating expectations. Like post creations at 143,000, when the market seemed to be tense after the publication of the FURNITIES of the ADP. Finally, the monthly increase in hourly wages is on average 0.2%.
What give credit to the attitude of delay of J Powell. D. Trump, whatever happens, will continue to put pressure, sometimes even crossing the limit of disrespect and insult, with regard to the Patrier de la Fed.
According to the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group, the probabilities of a monetary easing of 25 base points at the end of this month have just collapsed, passing in an instant from 23.3% to 6.7%.
“In response to the employment report, the money markets abandoned their bets on a reduction in the Fed in July, postponing the calendar of the next decrease of 25 base points (0.25 percentage points) to October, and now expected only 50 points of flexibility this year (compared to 66 base points before publication)”, explains Michael Brown at Pepperston.
“A report on solid employment would probably definitively rule out the (very low) probability of a rate drop in July … and Jerome Powell will suffer the pressure from Donald Trump all summer,” warned Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France, in a note published before the publication of this statistics.
The market also continues to keep an eye on the soap opera of customs duties while the deadline of July 9 is approaching. On this date, all of the customs from customs presented last April by Donald Trump are supposed to come into force.
The American president announced on Wednesday July 2, having concluded a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam’s imported goods will be struck by a surcharge of 20% at their entry on American soil, and no longer 46% as initially announced.
The tenant of the White House will be able to parade for the national holiday, after his legislative victory endorsing his “big and beautiful budgetary law”.
On the values ​​side, Pluxee resumed 4.4% after revealing satisfactory organic growth in the third quarter and confirmed its annual objectives. But it is Virbac who closes at the top of the SBF 120 this Thursday (+9.3%), supported by a note of Oddo BHF which raises his opinion to “outperformance” and his lens of courses at 395 euros on the title of the animal health laboratory. Maurel & Prom won 6.7%, the market appreciating the latest initiative of the oil group in Colombia.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the last session of the week in the green, in great shape after the publication of the employment report, like the Dow Jones (+0.77%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.02%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, appreciated 0.83% to 6,280 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,17,750. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.31%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.40 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority French industrial production at 8:45 am.
Key graphics elements
The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.
The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.
First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.
The intermediate support of the 7,500 points nevertheless allowed the flagship index to find oxygen at the end of the week 26. It is already back on an intermediate resistance to 7,700 points.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7810.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7605.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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