CAC 40: Nervous expectation of the price cleaner

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The CAC 40, in any volumes, nibbled 0.35% on Monday, passing the essentials of the session near the technical level of the 7,700 points, the operators advancing at stake in questioning the fate that Trump will reserve for European exporters. If the “cleaver” tariff is in principle scheduled for July 09, on Wednesday, the unpredictable president of the United States once again sowed the disorder.

If agreements are not established by Wednesday, customs surcharge would come into force not in the coming days but on August 1, the Secretary of Commerce announced on Sunday, Howard Lutnick. After yet another consultation of the Member States yesterday, the European Commission still hopes to formulate a joint proposal this Wednesday.

“The next wave of American customs duties could play a crucial role in the modification of the dynamics of global trade. As August 1 approaching the deadline of August 1, Washington is preparing to bring customs duties to April 2 for countries that fail to conclude bilateral agreements. This policy suggests the risk of a return to a unilateral application of customs rights and Erik Boekel of DHF Capital.

“Investors will closely follow the evolution of the situation, as these measures could feed inflationary pressures and delay decreases in the federal reserve rate. In the short term, this context could promote a revival of force of refuge values ​​such as gold, while fueling volatility and risks of lower stock markets,” he adds.

Statistically, very little to put in the tooth on Monday. Let us quote all the same the good comeback of the index feelix of confidence of investors in the euro zone, from 0.2 to 4.5. As for monthly retail sales, they came out very close to expectations, too in any case to cause discrepancies on the courses.

On the values ​​side, Capgemini dropped 5.6% after announcing the acquisition of WNS for $ 3.3 billion out of debt. An interesting operation on paper but which raises questions, believes Oddo BHF. WNS is a firm specializing in the digitalization of business processes. Strong increase in CAC 40, Société Générale has won 2.8%. In a note, Bank of America writes that the bank could announce share buybacks and raise its objectives for 2025 and 2026 when it is published on its half -yearly results on July 31. SMCP resumed 6.1% while a court decision fought speculation on the ready-to-wear group. Finally, Drone Volt continued its flambé movement, winning 10% all round. The action of the civil drone specialist has won 232% since January 1.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares lost ground on Monday, like the Dow Jones (-0.94%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.92%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of the appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, depreciated from 0.79% to 6,230 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1730. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.90. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.39%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.80 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the NFIB index of small American businesses at 12:00 p.m. on Tuesday.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

The intermediate support of the 7,500 points nevertheless allowed the flagship index to find oxygen at the end of the week 26. It is already back on an intermediate resistance to 7,700 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7895.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics