EUR/USD: Distrust of the greenback

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The euro took a break from the dollar on the exchange market, in the form of a sweater on the technical threshold of $ 1,1674, only reinforcing the trend bottom of the spot. The ticket remained chronically under pressure, faced with the fear of a loss of hegemony in world trade, against the backdrop of the trade war led by D Trump/

Regarding trade between the United States and the EU, if agreements are not established by Wednesday, customs surcharge would come into force not in the coming days but on August 1, the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick announced on Sunday. After yet another consultation of the Member States yesterday, the European Commission still hopes to formulate a joint proposal this Wednesday.

Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management Auris Gestion, considers that “the fate of the trade war seems to be thrown away. Indeed, despite the few agreements already concluded (United Kingdom, China, Vietnam) and if others are still being negotiated (Canada), many economic partners have not always reached an agreement with the United States, exposing the tariffs of Donald Trump. US secretary to the Treasury Scott Bessent – who still takes on the role of firefighter of service – who ultimately, against all odds, agreed to investors since he declared this Sunday that the countries having concluded any agreement would be notified this day of the application of customs duties on August 1, thus postponing the moratorium of … 23 additional days. “

“Donald Trump thus makes a very personal interpretation of the art of the war of Sun Tzu, by resolving the difficulties he creates himself:” He who excels in solving the difficulties resolved them before they arise. He who excels in defeating his enemies triumph before the threats of them materialize “”.

This distrust of the greenback, for commercial reasons we have just seen it, is also for budgetary reasons, after the vote in extremis, just before the American national holiday, of the XXL law (or rather BBB for Big Beautiful Bill).

“Bovers are still net of dollars. After a drop of -13% against the euro since the start of the year, they expect the dollar to collapse in similar proportions against the Chinese Yuan, the Australian dollar and the South Korean Won. These are the three currencies that could benefit from the wave of distrust, Options “, decrypts Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

In the statistical chapter, very little to put in the tooth on Monday. Let us quote all the same the good comeback of the index feelix of confidence of investors in the euro zone, from 0.2 to 4.5. As for monthly retail sales, they came out very close to expectations, too in any case to cause discrepancies on the courses. Note the publication on Tuesday of a German trade surplus significantly higher than expectations for May, at $ 18.4 billion.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1720 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).

The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1718 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 746 pips and the risk of loss is 259 pips.

Daily data graphics