(BFM Stock Exchange) – The group of spirits saw its action take off during the last sessions, benefiting from less strong customs from customs than expected in China, with moreover an exemption measure, and a catch -up effect of the sector.

The spirits sector may be made up of groups appreciated for the quality of their execution and their activity model, it has greatly suffered in recent years. The action of the British Diageo plunges 46.2% over three years, that of Pernod Ricard by 50%.

The activity of alcoholiers has been penalized by the atony of demand in China as well as by high stocks in the United States which logically weigh on growth.

Rémy Cointreau has particularly suffered. The group specializing in liqueurs, and cognac in particular (around 62% of its income), sees its action plunging more than 70% over three years. The group was playing in early 2021 on its highest historic on the stock market in early 2021 and its course exceeded 210 euros. The title is now barely 50 euros.

Rémy Cointreau was particularly affected by the weakness of the Chinese market but also by the threats of customs surcharge on imports of European brandy in China as well as in the United States.

>> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes, and enter into the confidence of the trading portfolio

Relief on Chinese surcharge

The company born in 1990 of the merger of two companies founded by the Hériard and Dubreuil families, however, has been having colors for several sessions now.

The action resumed 7.3% on July 1 and then signed almost five consecutive progression sessions (the title marked a break on July 3, with a variation of 0%). Rémy Cointreau earns another 3.1% this Tuesday, July 8, increasing more than 20% in six sessions.

This rally is explained above all by China. The action reacted on July 1 to press information reporting an agreement in principle between producers of Cognac and Beijing to avoid heavy customs surcharges. Chinese authorities then formalized these agreements.

Last Friday, MOFCOM, that is to say the Ministry of Commerce in China, announced that customs duties of 34.9% would be levied from the imports of “Brandy” (Les Eau-de-Vie). However, exemptions are planned for European groups which would agree to sell at a minimum import price, the threshold of which was not specified by the ministry.

Beyond this exemption, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce will reimburse the deposits paid by Brandy producers since October 2024, when the Chinese authorities had established cations while waiting to make a final decision on customs duties.

These decisions conclude a soap opera which had started in January 2024. Beijing had then opened an anti-dumping survey on European brandy, which constituted a form of response to a similar measure taken by the European Union on electric vehicles produced in China.

Ultimately “the expected penalties are less than feared (34.9% against 38% for the temporary rate, editor’s note) and exemptions are planned,” observes an analyst. In the case of Rémy Cointreau “The action was brought by the fact that they highlighted the signing of the agreement and indicated that this decision would encourage them to take up their prospects for exercise 2025-2026”, explains this analyst.

The latter estimates that cognac sales in China represent around 20% of group income (compared to around 8% for Pernod Ricard).

Towards an increase in objectives

In a statement released on Friday, Rémy Cointreau announced that he is one of the cognac producers (including Pernod Ricard) who have entered into an agreement with the Chinese authorities.

This agreement relates to minimum price commitments “on the imports of brandy from the distillation of grapes in containers of less than 200 liters and originally from the European Union,” said the company.

“Although the conditions of this agreement remain less advantageous than those in force before the opening of the survey, they offer a much more favorable outcome or at least, a significantly less penalizing alternative than the application of final anti -dumping rights,” said Rémy Cointreau.

“These impacts, thanks to this agreement, promise to be much less restrictive than those initially envisaged during the publication of the annual results of June 4, 2025 and will allow a strengthening of certain investments in China. Consequently, Rémy Cointreau will update its annual objectives during the publication of the first quarter, on July 25,” announced the company.

In a note published this Tuesday, UBS estimates that the impact linked to minimum Chinese import prices could be between 5 million and 10 million euros, much less than the 40 million euros which it calculated on the basis of 38%anti -dumping taxes.

The Swiss Bank raised its profit forecast per share per share for the financial year ended in March 2026 to take into account the final decision of China. UBS also noted its course target at 51 euros, against 46 euros, also confirming its advice to “neutral” on action.

The bank tables in passing on a return to the growth of sales of Rémy Cointreau for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-2026. UBS anticipates 1.9% growth in comparable data when consensus is a decline of 1.2%. The Swiss bank attributes this increase to restocking in the United States and better sales resilience in China.

Beyond the announcements on China, the analyst previously mentioned mentions a “patchwork of elements” which can continue to carry the action of Rémy Cointreau.

The specialist evokes hopes around an agreement between the European Union and the United States on customs duties (Donald Trump had threatened to establish 200% customs surcharge on imports of alcoholic products from Europe) a resumption of tourism, especially in France, which can support sales of the “Travel Retail” (shops in airports) or simply “an effect of stock market a underperform “.