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The euro took a break from the dollar on the exchange market, in the form of a sweater on the technical threshold of $ 1,1674, only reinforcing the trend bottom of the spot. The ticket remained chronically under pressure, faced with the fear of a loss of hegemony in world trade, against the backdrop of the trade war led by D Trump.
Regarding trade between the United States and the EU, if agreements are not established this Wednesday, the customs surcharge would come into force not in the coming days but on August 1, the Secretary of Commerce announced on Sunday, Howard Lunick. After yet another consultation of the Member States yesterday, the European Commission still hopes to formulate a joint proposal this Wednesday.
On Monday, the Trump administration sent its letters to 14 countries, expressing the customs surcharge it intends to impose on imports of its business partners on August 1. The rate reaches 36% for Thailand and Cambodia, 25% for Japan and South Korea.
The European Union is not currently concerned by these letters. “During the night, Politico reported that, although a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union was not finalized, the United States had proposed to the European Union a customs duties of 10%, accompanied by certain conditions,” notes Deutsche Bank. The Reuters agency, for its part, reports that the European Union could benefit from exemptions on certain sectors on universal customs duties of 10%, citing sources due to the file.
This trade war undermines the hegemonic role of the dollar in world trade, in full redefinition of its DNA. “On the foreign exchange market, the trades are still net of dollars. After a drop of -13% against the euro since the start of the year, they expect the dollar to collapse in similar proportions against the Chinese Yuan, the Australian dollar and the South Korean Won. These are the three currencies that could the most benefit from the wave of distrust, The positions on the options market “, deciphers Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
In the statistical chapter, note the publication Tuesday of a German trade surplus significantly higher than expectations for May, at $ 18.4 billion. The NFIB index of small American companies, for its part, came to 98.6 fully in the target. This Wednesday, to follow in priority crude stocks across the Atlantic at 4.30 p.m. and Minutes FED at 8:00 p.m. The opportunity to learn more about the content of the debates between voting members of the Federal Reserve. It will be noted that the probabilities of a decrease in federal rates at the end of the month collapsed after the publication Thursday of a report on American private employment of excellent invoice.
As a reminder, the unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.1%, beating expectations. Like post creations at 143,000, when the market seemed to be tense after the publication of the FURNITIES of the ADP. Finally, the monthly increase in hourly wages is on average 0.2%. What give credit to the attitude of delay of J Powell. D. Trump, whatever happens, will continue to put pressure, sometimes even crossing the limit of disrespect and insult, with regard to the Patrier de la Fed.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1715 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).
The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).
The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1714 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 750 pips and the risk of loss is 255 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
