EUR/USD: Donald

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Once again, Trump was retreating after his threats, corroborating the nickname “Taco”, which now sticks to his skin. The one who loves acronyms is, from a now editorial of the Financial Times, has been for an investor fringe at Wall Street, a “deflated” … Trump Always Chickens Out (Taco) can approximately translate into “Trump always ends up deflating”.

This time it is about the boss of the Fed, J Powell, on whom he has exerted indecent pressure for months. The status quo of the Fed is hardly to the taste of the occupant of the oval office, which requires a sharp drop in rates, in addition to the factual independence of the federal reserve.

Several sources reported on Wednesday July 16 that the American president was preparing to dismiss the president of the Fed. But the president denied the information, believing that the dismissal of Jerome Powell was “highly improbable”.

Trump believes that Powell “does bad job” but he is “not talking about” to dismiss him, he assured. “We are not planning to do anything,” he added.

“Beyond the interest rates, Trump has pointed out the renovation expenses of the Fed headquarters, described as” ridiculous extension to $ 2.5 billion “.” Is this a reason to justify a dismissal? I think it can be, “he launched, in reference to an envelope validated by the Management and Budget Office (OMB)”, explain the specialists.

Trump keeps calling Jerome “Too Late” Powell to lower the dollar rent. However, the latter justifies its cautious attitude by the inflationary effects still difficult to quantify extreme budgetary and commercial policies of the White House.

“This new presidential outing is not without effect on the markets. The yield of state loans at 30 years has crossed 5 %, a sign of a revival of tension. Trump accuses Powell – which he nicknamed” Too Late Powell ” – to slow growth with excess prudence”

The 10 years stretched a little at 4.47%.

As a reminder, published Tuesday, inflation in the United States therefore increased by 2.7% over one year in June, against a consensus at 2.6% and after 2.4% in May, according to the CPI consumer price index. The underlying inflation, “Core”, that is to say excluding energy and food prices, it came under 2.9% expectations in annual sliding in June against 2.8% the previous month and 3.0% according to a consensus built by the Wall Street Journal.

In all cases, the prospect of a decrease in federal rates at the end of the month continues to move away, the probabilities of a contraction of 25 base points of the Fed Funds remaining famelical within the meaning of the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group (2.6%!).

Burkers were learned yesterday of the production prices dynamics in the United States, stable regardless of the product of products selected.

This Thursday, the program is dense with retail sales at 2:30 p.m., weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and “Philly Fed” (manufacturing index of the Fed of Philadelphia).

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1600 approximately.

Key graphics elements

While the 1,1674 were broken in a certain volatility, we are waiting to gauge the quality of the spot reaction in contact with the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). So far, this background trend curve has a significant support role.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1970 USD.

Daily data graphics