(BFM Stock Exchange) – The three listed establishments, namely BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole SA will publish their results in the second quarter on July 24 and 31. Analysts believe that the Red and Black Bank is good at stories while the other two establishments should deliver correct or mixed copies.
Banks are not the residents of the CAC 40 who have the most important weight in the Parisian index. No establishment is among the first ten stock markets of the large barometer of the tricolor square. BNP Paribas, with its 87.2 billion euros only points to twelfth row. The first French bank also remains far, very far from JPMorgan, the first establishment in the world on this criterion, and its 682 billion euros, around.
For a long time, French banks were kept away from the good performances of their European sisters, in particular because the period of high rate from 2022 to 2024 benefited them much less.
The tricolor banks lend at fixed rate in their main market, France (on the contrary, for example, of the United Kingdom or Spain), while the regulated savings products (such as booklet A) increase with inflation. This results in more expensive remuneration for deposits. In other words, their income only progressed slowly while the remuneration they paid to savers climbed.
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The awakening of French banks on the stock market
But at the start of 2025, French banks experienced real stock market alarm clock. The three groups are among the strongest increases in CAC 40. Crédit Agricole SA is attached 20.2%
(14th), BNP Paribas takes 30.3% (6th) and Société Générale sits at the top of the index, with an increase of 82.8%. These increases prove, for once, consistent with the entire European sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index has taken 31.6% since the start of the year.
The banks of the Old Continent offer, as a whole an attractive valuation, solid fundamentals with a growth potential reinforced by the will of Germany, in particular, to strengthen its growth.
In a note published in May, Barclays wrote that American investors had a positive opinion in the sector in Europe, judging that macroeconomic risks had decreased for banks. The absence of direct exposure of the sector to customs duties was also able to play.
French banks, more particularly, have a significant diversification and are less exposed than their sisters (notably Irish, Spanish and Italian) to professions dependent on the evolution of interest rates. This makes them more attractive when rates and inflation have dropped (which has been the case for several months). In addition, the three groups drew part of the robustness of their market activities in the last quarters.
Down profits expected
In this context, what can the next quarterly results that will be published by the three banks can reserve? BNP Paribas will deliver its accounts on July 24 while Société Générale and Crédit Agricole SA will follow suit a week later, July 31.
Bank of America is expecting, overall, that the profits from the three groups are retreating, tabling on an average withdrawal of their net profit by 4%. The growth of their income, the net banking product (equivalent to turnover) could be “modest”.
The recovery in retail banking and specialized services (such as car financing and consumer credit) should be counterbalanced by a drop over one year of income in savings management (asset management, wealth management) and in the financing and investment bank.
In addition, despite good costs control, Bank of America believes that French banks will face a negative chisel effect, that is to say that their expenses will progress more than their income.
The establishment estimates that investors will be attentive to the comments of the three groups on the impact of customs duties for their growth as well as on their long -term prospects for profitability, insofar as their strategic plans all end in 2025 or 2026.
UBS, for its part, writes that it will more particularly monitor the rate dynamics in the retail bank in France and the efforts on the costs undertaken by BNP Paribas and Société Générale.
Société Générale Paré to shine
The latter is particularly appreciated by analysts. Société Générale is the favorite value of Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Jefferies, to name a few. Bank of America and Jefferies expect more particularly that the results of the second quarter constitute a catalyst for the action of the Defense Bank.
“We believe that the solidity of the capital of the bank and the sustainability of improving its results should allow management to announce a dividend by intermediate action of 65 cents”, or 40% of the coupon expected for 2025, writes Jefferies.
Bank of America thinks that Société Générale will activate its shareholder’s return policy from the second half of their semester.
The bank had warned at the beginning of the year that it would redistribute to its carriers its excess capital from the moment when its ratio this 1 (equity reported to the weighted outstanding risk) will exceed 13%. Bank of America estimates that Société Générale will arrive at a 13.5% ratio at the end of June 2025.
The American establishment expects the French bank to announce when it was published its results that it decided to request the approval of the European Central Bank (ECB) to launch a program of share buybacks. Without specifying the amount, however, because Bank of America believes that Société Générale will only reveal it once the green light from the European institution obtained.
Jefferies draws up the same observation, namely that Société Générale will redistribute the excess capital above the 13% threshold of its ratio this 1. The design office anticipates in this perspective that the bank will buy for 1.25 billion euros in shares under 2025.
Royal Bank of Canada also judges that the results of Société Générale could bring their share of good news. The written Canadian bank expects “the second quarter publication to support the thesis of a higher capital distribution at Société Générale and additional potential for improving efficiency”. The Canadian establishment considers, however, that these good news is already integrated into the course of action.
At the “neutral” on the title, UBS considers that the announcements around the share buybacks will be “important” for the evolution of the short -term action.
BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole publications its less brilliant?
Analysts are less enthusiastic about the publications of BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole SA. Jefferies does not think that this season of results will constitute a catalyst for these two banks.
The financial intermediary expects BNP Paribas to publish results simply online with expectations. It anticipates an increase of 2.4% of its revenues in the second quarter, and estimates that the dynamics will then accelerate the second half.
For Crédit Agricole SA, even if Jefferies does not expect the market to be transcended by its results, the design office believes that consensus (and therefore analysts) have not taken into account certain elements, including the gains allowed by the merger of its asset management group, Amundi, with the American Victory Capital. This explains why its profit forecast per share is 9% higher than that of consensus.
For its part, Bank of America is counting on “decent” results for BNP Paribas, in the context of a year 2025 which should testify to an improvement in retail banking in France and Belgium as well as in automotive financing and asset management. But Bank of America expects these progressions to be especially noted in the second half.
For Crédit Agricole SA, Bank of America anticipates a “mixed” quarter due in particular to a high comparison base. According to them, income should increase by 1% but the chisel effect would be negative up to 1 percentage point. If it appreciates the quality of the bank’s professions, especially in savings management, it does not see a positive catalyst on the horizon.
The variations and the classification were stopped at the end of Thursday evening.
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