CAC 40: Resistance is confirmed at 7,900 points

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This is not the very much expected outcome of the BCE Governors’ Council, which caused the CAC 40 contraction (-0.41%) on Thursday, but a series of disappointing quarterly publications.

Stmicroelectronics unscrewed by 16.6%, after announcing a disappointing margin target for the third quarter. Dassault Systems plunged 8.4%, penalized by comments on its cash flow prospects that have seized investors. Totalenergies, second largest CAC 40 weighting, lost 3.5% after reporting a drop in its profit in the second quarter and especially a clear rise in its net debt. Even BNP Paribas, who beat expectations in the second quarter, struggled to progress, ending on an increase contained at 0.4% after evolved in the red.

If the BCE’s break, in a hurry to do nothing, has not catalyzed the debates, the investors are waiting, like C Lagarde, moreover, of a breakthrough in the pricing fog:

The spokesman for the European Commission, Olof Gilles, told journalists on Thursday that an agreement between the European Union and the United States was “at hand”. The day before several media had indicated that the two parties were heading for a text limiting customs surcharge inflicted on European imports to 15%, with certain sectoral exceptions. What would be very similar to the agreement between the United States and Japan, announced earlier in the week.

“Thus, despite the threat of prices of 30%, some European countries which wanted the rapid conclusion of an agreement (like Germany) no longer hesitates to brandish the threat of the anti-coercion instrument (ACI). If it is activated, this European system created in 2023 will allow to restrict the access of certain companies to European public markets, which would impact that of American tech. In some analysts, the agreement with Japan also arouses the hope of seeing a deal quickly concluded with the EU.

To be complete on the values, excluding flagship index, several companies have bitten the dust. Eurazeo lost 13.8% after delivering a “dull” performance in the first half, according to the independent alphavalue design office. SEB abandoned 9.8% after lowering its objectives due to the impact of customs duties. Fnac Darty sold 9% after delivering results deemed hardly impressive by analysts. On the side of the few good performance, Optobility (ex plastic omnium) distinguished itself by taking 8% after the publication of half -yearly results appreciated by analysts, as well as Ipsos (+6.9%) which returned to growth in the second quarter.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Thursday in dispersed order, the Dow Jones of contractor of 0.70% and the Nasdaq composite grapping 0.18%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, ended in equilibrium on the 6,363 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1740. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.38%. As for the Vix, it was worth 15.40 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the German IFO index at 10:00 am and the orders of lasting goods across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m.

The market will have to deal this Friday with the publication, Thursday evening, of LVMH, in the hard.

Key graphics elements

The release of the technical camisole is confirmed, coming to give more meaning to the supporting of the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue).

The buying position on the spot can be kept as long as the oscillations are built between this trend curve and the high bollingger strips (20; 2.5).

The relative force index (RSI) is in full convergence with the courses.

The index has just validated a phase of sweater (graphic rejection).

A tidy (lateral channel) with an amplitude of 400 points is sketching, between 7,500 and 7,900 points. It is this resistance to 7,900 points that is currently tested. A test for the moment in the form of failure.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7700.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics