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The euro contracts against the dollar, without questioning its background upward trend, after the commercial “commercial” and customs customs accepted by the European executive.
On the occasion of a private trip to Scotland, Donald Trump, who lived in a family home, met Ursula van der Leyen, the head of the American executive, and a trade agreement between Brussels and Washington will have been signed. It provides customs from customs to the tune of 15%, with notable exemptions, in aeronautics and spirits in particular, and non -less notable counterparts: 638 billion euros of purchase reserved for energy, and 510 billion euros of investment.
Half less, therefore, than the 30% brandished at the start by the White House. But basically, wouldn’t the American president have won his trade war? This is the feeling that prevails if we coldly look at the initial commercial situation, and the bases of the new agreement.
Several reactions from French ministers, including Mr. Benjamin Haddad, Minister Delegate in charge of Europe, go in this direction. He sees it as an unbalanced agreement. His “N+2” to the government, the Prime Minister François Bayrou speaks of a “dark day” and a “submission”.
Still on the customs front, several media report that Washington and Beijing will extend the suspension of most of the customs surcharges that they had inflicted themselves. This break had been decided in May and temporarily fixed customs surcharges hitting Chinese products at 30% and those imposed on American products by China at 10%, against 145% and 125% respectively before this agreement.
In the statistical chapter on Friday, the operators learned of a slight increase, although infection of expectations, of the IFO index of the business climate in Germany. In addition to Atlantic, orders for lasting goods were published up 0.2% (twice the consensus) in monthly rhythm, excluding automotive. This on Monday, no sharp statistical benchmark is to be reported. See you tomorrow with new job offers (Jolts) and the American consumer confidence index within the meaning of the Conference Board.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1680 approximately.
Key graphics elements
While the 1,1674 were broken in a certain volatility, we are waiting to gauge the quality of the reaction of spot In contact with the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). So far, this substantive trend curve plays a significant support role, as precise as it is predictive. It is a powerful tool that should not be hesitated to use.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1675 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 789 pips and the risk of loss is 216 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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