EUR/USD: Major MODIUR of remarkable mobile average

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The euro continued to “correct” against the dollar, in the wake of an unbalanced trade agreement, signed on Sunday in Scotland between Washington and Beijing. Symbolically, the President of the United States, traveling to Scotland, was actually at home, staying in a family home …

This trade agreement brings back customs duties imposed by the United States on European imports at 15%. Without common ground, Washington would have inflicted customs taxes of 30% on Europe from August 1.

This agreement, described as “larger” never concluded in terms of trade by Donald Trump, includes a certain number of exceptions, with products taxed at 0% on the part of the two business partners, including aeronautical equipment, equipment for semiconductors, and certain agricultural products. But not alcoholic products whose fate must be decided “in the coming days,” said Ursula von der Leyen.

The text also provides that Europeans will buy $ 750 billion in energy products from the United States and will invest $ 600 billion in the country.

“Why so many gifts to the Americans?” Asked, indignant, Véronique Rich-Flores, independent economist. “The EU’s trade surplus with regard to the United States would have disproportionately increased in recent years”, Ms. Von Der Leyen, president of the Commission and negotiator for the EU who abounds in the direction of D. Trump and thereby forget that the Americans compensate for a large part of their deficits of goods by comfortable excess of services. “

“So, yes, 15 % are always better than 30 % or 50 % and it is likely that the investors will applaud this relief, or will do, at least, seeming to do so. Because, which can consider what is presented as an agreement, other than a racket whose Europeans will pay for both the economic note and that, even more bitter, of the humiliation of no more knowing how to do it but to bend and to do more than to make diktates Inexpensive.

15% is half less, therefore, than the 30% brandished at the start by the White House. But basically, wouldn’t the American president have won his trade war? This is the feeling that prevails if we coldly look at the initial commercial situation, and the bases of the new agreement.

Several reactions from French ministers, including Mr. Benjamin Haddad, Minister Delegate in charge of Europe, go in this direction. He sees it as an unbalanced agreement. His “N+2” to the government, the Prime Minister François Bayrou speaks of a “dark day” and a “submission”.

“Donald Trump is not only about to win his trade war, which many observers were difficult to do a few months ago, he is also gaining the battle of rhetoric,” analyzes Valentin Urrutiaguer, head of the Cross-Asset Auris Gestion management.

“Since beyond the concessions made by the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen has itself conceded a untruth concerning the amount of commercial imbalance, ignoring the importation of services (which reduce the American deficit to 66 billion dollars) or even the optimization mechanism of certain American multinationals which install their headquarters in Ireland, trade deficit. “

Bloads will also be attentive to the outcome, tomorrow, of the Fed (FOMC) monetary policy committee. The macroeconomic figures to date, especially on the front of domestic consumption, campaign for a status quo on the remuneration of Fed Funds. The Fedwatch tool of the CME Group is 97% figures the probabilities of status quo, to the chagrin of Donald Trump, who continues to have his requirement to see the guiding rates melt, dealing all the boss of the “Nigaud” Fed to all go …

“As long as Fed’s decisions continue to be guided by economic data, and not by political pressures, we anticipate a drop in rates of 100 base points by June 2026”, anticipates Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer, UBS WM France, UBS Europe SE, branch of France. “This development will further erode the value of liquidity deposits, thus strengthening the attraction of quality obligations, including American treasure bills (of a five -year maturity), which, in our view, should retain their central role in the global financial system”

The week is under the sign of American employment on the publication side, with weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, the ADP survey, new JOLTS job offers, the deletions of challenger posts and especially the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report, still very followed Federal Report on Private Employment Health across the Atlantic.

To be continued at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, new job offers (JOLTS) and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1575 approximately.

Key graphics elements

While the 1,1674 were broken in a certain volatility, we are waiting to gauge the quality of the reaction of spot In contact with the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). So far, this substantive trend curve plays a significant support role, as precise as it is predictive. It is a powerful tool that should not be hesitated to use. A major test is underway.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1576 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1444 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 888 pips and the risk of loss is 132 pips.

Daily data graphics