by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to rise on Monday with the hope of a drop in guiding rates after the disappointing indicators on American employment, while European scholarships benefit the cheap purchasing mid -session after the massive sales on Friday. Futures in New York indices report an opening of Wall Street up 0.64% for the Dow Jones, 0.67% for Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.79% for the Nasdaq after the net drop on Friday linked to the US employment report and customs duties imposed by President Donald Trump.

In Paris, the CAC 40 earns 0.81% at 7,606.98 points around 10:40 gmt after a loss of 2.91% on Friday. In Frankfurt, the Dax advances 1.19% and in London, the FTSE took 0.32%. The SMI index on the Zurich Stock Exchange is however in the red (-0.67%) after Donald Trump decided to impose customs duties on Switzerland of 39%, one of the highest rates, from August 7.

The pan -European FTSEUROFIRST 300 index increased by 0.55% and the Eurostoxx 50 in the euro zone of 1.19%. The Stoxx 600, which on Friday accused its most important daily withdrawal (-1.81%) in more than three months, rebounds by 0.53%.

The monthly report of the American Department of Labor, published on Friday, showed that the economy had created fewer jobs than scheduled in July, 73,000 after 14,000 in June (revised figure of 147,000) and a reuters consensus at 110,000. This figure lower than the expectations and the revision of data in June shook the stock market indices on Friday and lowers the dollar.

But on Monday, a fragile stability seems to be returned to the markets while the probability of a drop in September of the rates of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) in parallel with 85% against 63.1% a week ago.

“I think that the main teaching to be drawn from all this is the net revision. We have all seen figures on the job on the job disappointing in the past, which we can explain as punctual, but a clear revision as important suggests that it could well be a more pronounced weakening of labor market conditions,” notes Michael Brown, market strategist at Pepperstone.

The announcement Friday of the departure of Adriana Kugler, the governor of the Fed, also added to the uncertainties, the market feared an upheaval of the succession process of Jerome Powell, the boss of the Central Bank, regularly criticized by Donald Trump.

However, a sign of an attenuation of fear on the markets on Monday, the VIX VIX of volatility to Wall Street is more than 7%, while its equivalent on Eurostoxx yields almost 9%. Almost all the major compartments of the Stoxx 600 are in green, finance (+0.23%) and new technologies (+0.90%) being in the lead.

The values to follow at Wall Street

Tesla rises from 2.5% in a forefoot after the allocation of 96 million shares to its director general, Elon Musk.

The Commscope Action flies over 45% in a forefoot after information from the Wall Street Journal that amphenol is about to buy the connectivity and cable division of the communication network infrastructure provider for around $ 10 billion.

Values in Europe

Air France-KLM jumped 7.10% in favor of a recovery of Barclays recommendation, the intermediary citing an increase in unit revenues by passengers, the recovery by Transavia of the Air France Service The Orly shuttle and the future consolidation of its Scandinavian competitor SAS.

Swiss industrialists like Swatch (-2.0%), Richemont (-1.42%), Novartis (-0.40%) and Roche (1.94%) are in red after the announcement of American customs duties against Switzerland.

The Lloyds banking values (+7.65%), Close Brothers (+21.51%), Barclays (+1.96%), Bank of Ireland (+3.67%) and Santander (+2.80%) are well oriented, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom having canceled a decision of 2024 on Friday which had caused a shock wave in the automotive and weighing sector heavily on the actions of the most exposed actors.

RATE

The yield of American treasury bills at ten years is practically stable on Monday, taking two basis points, at 4.2395%, after having touched a hollow of five weeks on Friday. The one at two years is also practically unchanged on Monday, at 3.7019%, after a fall of 24 base points on Friday, at the lowest since May 1. They reacted to anticipations on Friday of a drop in FED key rates after the US employment report.

The yield of the German Bund at ten years gives in 1.7 base points, to 2.659%, and that at two years does not vary practically, to 1.8997%.

Changes

The dollar further fell back on Monday, 0.27% against a basket of international currencies, with a loss of 1.3% on Friday. The greenback is allocated by the Donald Trump employment and decision to dismiss the head of labor statistics (BLS), Erika Mcentarfer, which pushes investors to bet more on an imminent drop in guiding rates.

Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would announce a candidate to occupy the now vacant position at the Fed and a new BLS director in the coming days.

The euro abandons 0.23%, to 1.558 dollars, after having taken approximately 1.5% Friday

The sterling book is stable, at 1.3272 dollars (-0.02%).

OIL

The oil market is on a clear fall on Monday after OPEC+ decided on a new significant increase in its production in September, even if the traders remain suspicious of possible new American sanctions against Russia.

Brent loses 1.16% at 68.86 dollars per barrel and American brut (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) declines 1.29% to 66.47 dollars.

Main economic indicator remaining at the August 4 agenda:

Pays GMT indicator previous consensus period

USA 2:00 p.m. orders to industry June -4.8% +8.2%

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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