EUR/USD: neutrality remains

Key graphics elements

This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.
The PMIs of services published Tuesday confirm a shortness of breath in economic dynamics in the United States, with an ISM index at 50.1, close to stagnation, accompanied by a clear weakening of the employment component and an input cost of inputs, strengthening the risk of stagflation. At the same time, new industrial orders in Germany fell for the second consecutive month, penalized by the fall of foreign demand, in a context of commercial hardening led by Washington. The new American customs duties, which will reach up to 41 % on certain imports from August 7, weigh on the business climate and add a level of uncertainty that slows down the risk of risk. Bovers now anticipate a probability of more than 90 % of a monetary easing of the Fed in September, with up to 130 bases in the drop in rates by 2026 depending on the term markets. However, the contradictory declarations of FOMC members and the lack of consensus on inflationary pressures make the orientation of the short -term uncertain monetary policy. In this scrambled context, the Euro-Dollar seems to evolve in a phase of lateral consolidation, with operators in the waiting position before the publication of American inflation figures next week. The Euro-Dollar is evolving in a relatively neutral technical configuration, pending a clear catalyst that may boost a directional movement. After a rebound marked Friday following a very disappointing American employment report, the pair stabilized around 1.1570, without managing to extend the bullish momentum.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics