(BFM Stock Exchange) – A recent study by Finexsi firm showed that at the end of 2024, the reference discount for French property had absorbed itself to approach 30%, much less than their average over five years. The reductions in the key rates of the European Central Bank have made it possible to reduce this discount which however, which is still high, however. But it could still decrease in the coming months.

Listed real estate groups have experienced a difficult pass in recent years on the stock market, weighed down by a series of external factors, such as the pandemic then inflation and the rise in interest rates.

A listed property like Gecina accuses a 47% drop in her stock market course over five years, since 2019, a period that preceded the health crisis. For the operator of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield shopping centers, the fall is 43% over the same period.

But another thermometer that the fall in the stock market course may be more relevant: the RAD (Revalled net active) discount. This discount translates the gap between the ANR (more precisely “the ANR Epra NTA” for the land, which corresponds to the standards established by the European Association of the Real Estate Sector) and the company value of the company.

A discount that has several explanations

To simplify, this anr discount in a way translates the difference between the accounting value of the company (excluding net debt) and its value on the stock market.

Historically, this discount has often been present even if, according to the SFAF (French Society of Financial Analysts) of “additional additional” existed, that is to say that the market courses of land were superior to their ANR by action. This was the case in March 2015.

But generally there is an ANR discount for land. This value difference has several explanations. It can notably be due to the deadlines related to the sale of real estate assets in question, the holiday rates of these assets, or to the prospects of the various real estate markets, lists the Finexsi firm.

The SFAF also evokes liquidity problems (that is to say to simplify the fact that there are not necessarily buyers to acquire a property in question). “More generally, the discrepancy between the published ANR and market perception, as well as the volatility of the financial markets, are likely to have an impact on the levels of observed decorations,” explains Finexsi.

The ECB in support

The cabinet published in mid-July A study examining the evolution of this Anr discount since December 2019 until December 2024. For this, Finexsi took 10 large French vowers listed, namely Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, Klépierre, Gecina, Icade, Mercialys, Covivio, Carmila, Altarea Cogedim, Paref and French Society.

The cabinet identified the discount with each publication of the ANR (every six months therefore, at the end of December and at the end of June). To measure this discount, Finexsi retained the average of the closing courses of each group on the five sessions which followed the publication of their ANR. He then retained an average on this sample of 10 shares per period.

Several phases are observed (see the graph above). From December 2018 to December 2019, the discount is quite stable and limited. From December 2019 to December 2020, the discount progressed strongly due to the pandemic.

With the health crisis and the social distancing measures, the market stock prices have, in fact, dropped more strongly than their ANR by action. Between June 2020 and June 2021, the discount is significantly reduced because the stock market courses go up, supported by the accommodating budgetary and monetary policies while the ANR per share stabilizes.

From June 2021 to June 2022, the discount goes back, because the stock market courses plunge, “in a context of inflation, geopolitical tensions and the rise in interest rates”, explains Finexsi. This discount did not necessarily absorb between June 2022 and December 2023.

A discount that is still absorbed a little more

But since June 2024, the European Central Bank has lowered its main key rate eight times. This helped relaunch the compartment of the Lands on the Stock Exchange.

In 2024, the Unibail Radamco-Westfield action, for example, earned 8%, Klepierre just over 13% when Altarea took more than 19% over the period. Mercialys (+1.7%) and Covivio (+0.8%) Carmilia (+2.7%) experienced less flamboyant increases. Only Gecina (-18%), Icade (-38%) escaped this revaluation movement last year.

This increase in several of the titles of this sample contributed to the average discount of eight points in one year, going from 40% at the end of 2023, to 32% in December 2024.

This good trend continued on the whole of 2025. “The stock market sector is better, the property listed in the euro zone increased by 15% this year and there are around 13% decrease compared to the highest of 2021. Rate stabilization is an element favorable to this sector,” said Laurent Saint-Aubin, director of Sofidy stock management in the BFM BOXE.

To give an idea, compared to their ANR by action at the end of June published during the semi -annual results season, Gecina accused a 35% discount, when she reached 33% for Covivio at the end of June 2025 (on the basis of the scholarship course on June 30, 2025). The gap therefore resolved since these discussions were 38% and 40% respectively at the end of June 2024.

For Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, it is only 23% when it exceeded 50% at the end of June 2024. The property specializing in shopping centers begins has benefited from a dynamism of rental activity, and a sanitation of its financial situation with the sale of assets identified as non-strategic, coupled, therefore, to a drop in interest rates. The company has also noted its target for 2025 recurrent net income adjusted by Action when publication of its results last week, recalls Jefferies.

However, the independent AlphaValue design office recalls that Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield “is proportionally less exposed to the regions which currently contribute to the success of Klépierre, such as Spain”.

Real estate investment, key to revaluation of the sector

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield suffers, in fact, still from the comparison with its Klépierre rival, which is paid with a tiny discount, only 2.5% on June 30, 2025. The other large operator of shopping centers of the Paris Stock Exchange noted several of its annual objectives a few weeks ago.

“In the commercial real estate sector, where the slowdown is clear, Klépierre achieves good performances, especially in Spain and the Netherlands. The course of action Klépierre returned to its ANR, which is rare on the commercial real estate market,” notes the independent design office. On date*, Klépierre coast slightly above his ANR by action on June 30, 2025.

Laurent Saint-Aubin recalls that Klépierre acquired O’Parinor shopping centers last year in the Parisian suburbs and Romaest in Rome. These two assets purchased on “very exceptional conditions”, have created a lot of value, he abounds.

Altarea Cogedim is the other company listed on the Paris Stock Exchange which also evolves with a slight bonus compared to its ANR by action at the end of June 2025. The particularity of this company is that it is both a property, since it manages shopping centers but also a promoter, with its Cogedim brand, specialized in residential housing.

And the Cogedim subsidiary has recorded more volume reservations than the sector number, Nexity, with 4,610 reservations, up 16%, representing a total amount exceeding one billion euros. On the activity of shopping centers, Altarea argued, during its half -yearly results that its operational indicators were “favorably oriented”, which authorizes it to confirm its 2025 roadmap.

“The semi-annual results published by Les Foncières give relief to this favorable trend visible in the sector. To look at the performance of a property, we must look at the evolution of the valuation of their heritage, and also that of cash flows which prefigure the evolution of dividends. And the creation of value of a property is its dividends which are high. 5%, “explains Laurent Saint-Aubin.

“On these two elements (valuation of the heritage, and cash flow), we observe positive things in the results of the first half, with increases in heritage value of 2%. This revaluation is reinforced by the resumption of physical transactions, which credits the valuation assigned by the experts”, he also notes.

He recalls that transactions have increased by 11% in Europe since the start of the year compared to the same period of the past year.

“Do we start to perceive the light at the end of the tunnel?” Asked the experts of Rothschild Asset Management in June.

According to them, the recovery, even progressive at this stage, of real estate investment should move the lines. “On the one hand, it validates the damage of the low point of the valuation of the heritage of the land (which, in itself, should have already caused a reduction in the discount), but above all it will make it possible to accelerate the rotation phase of the capital and allow the priming of a new growth cycle,” they argue.

Rothschild & Co Asset Management experts recall that several landlands such as WDP, Montea, Wereldhave have achieved acquisitions since the start of the year. In France, Mercialys, for example, announced in June the acquisition of Saint-Genis 2, the largest shopping center in the west of the Lyon agglomeration.

This acquisition represents 5% of the heritage of La Foncière d’Emalovences Commercial, recalls Rothschild & Co Asset Management. This asset should express a return close to 8%, which makes “the operation particularly attractive”, considers the management company.

According to her, the resumption of the real estate investment market opens up prospects, in addition to confirming the end of the active devaluation cycle, from a gradual return to the growth of the sector.

“Without new significant increase in long rates, this state of affairs should find echo in the enhancement of listed land,” she concludes.

* Variation stopped at Thursday, August 6