EUR/USD: new inflation statistics to follow

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The US dollar remains under pressure, weakened by the rise in power of the anticipations of a monetary easing of the federal reserve in September. The term markets evaluate almost 93 % the probability of a decrease of 25 basic points, and at around 7 % that of a more marked movement of 50 base points, when it was not envisaged a week ago. This development is part of a context of slowing down inflation, the increase in consumer prices being limited to 0.2 % in July after +0.3 % in June, in accordance with expectations. Goldman Sachs now anticipates three reductions of 25 base points this year, followed by two new decreases in 2026, which would bring the key rate between 3 % and 3.25 %, against a current level between 4.25 % and 4.50 %. This afternoon, at 2:30 p.m., investors will carefully follow in the United States the publication of unemployed weekly registrations as well as PPI and PPI Core clues, key indicators to refine monetary policy anticipations.

At the same time, the euro benefits from a European monetary environment deemed more restrictive, the European Central Bank seeming to mark a break in its softening cycle. Several leading establishments estimate that the deposit rate could remain permanently around 2 %, despite the possibility of a technical adjustment in March 2026. The more favorable budgetary prospects in Germany, combined with the appeasement of trade tensions with the United States, support the single currency. On the Asian market, the Yen has strengthened following the statements of the American secretary to the Treasury, Scott Bessent, pleading for a raising of the rates by the Bank of Japan in order to contain persistent inflation. This repositioning of flows on the exchange market plays indirectly in favor of the euro.

On the technical level, the European motto retains an upward orientation, supported by a constructive dynamic. The mobile averages at 20 and 50 periods converge and could form a bullish non -crossing whose validation would send a positive signal to operators. Such a configuration would open the way to a rallying towards the 1.20 zone, a major long -term resistance. This scenario would remain privileged as long as the support located at 1.14 remains preserved, guaranteeing the solidity of the current trend.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1676 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is at 1.2000 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1380 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 324 pips and the risk of loss is 296 pips.

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