(BFM Stock Exchange) – The group of spirits lowered the impact on its current operating income of US surcharge, against 35 million euros previously. This allows him to note his profitability target for his year ended next March.

The European spirits sector remains a compartment that has suffered a lot on the stock market for several years now. Over three years, Pernod Ricard, Rémy Cointreau, Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Guiness) and Davide Campari lose 46%, 60.7%, 46%and 34.7%respectively.

After a major post-Cavid recovery, these groups have suffered from degraded consumption trends in China and the United States, with large stocks. At the same time, the sector was taken between two fronts on customs duties, with threats of customs surcharge in China (on brandy) and the United States (on all alcohols).

On this last point, the groups of spirits find a little visibility. China has finally established customs duties of 34.9% but providing exemptions for groups that would agree to sell at a minimum import price. This allowed European companies to get away with them at a lower cost.

In addition, this summer, the European Union and the United States have reached a customs duties agreement, bringing American surcharge to 15%. Europeans had tried to (in vain) an exemption for alcohol.

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Raising the perspective of “rock”

After this last agreement, Rémy Cointreau redid his accounts. The group of spirits specializing in cognac (around 62% of its income) lowered its forecasts for customs duties on its results on Friday, August 29, August 29.

With a rate of 15% on its exports to the United States (compared to 30% previously), the company now expects the American customs duties to take 20 million euros to its current operating profit (ROC), against 35 million previously. For China, the company had already lowered its projection to 10 million euros (against 40 million euros before) on July 25, when it was published in its first quarter of its year 2025-2026, closed next March.

“These estimates take into account the action plans implemented to mitigate the negative effects of additional customs duties. They also incorporate an increase in investments in China and the United States, in order to promote the resumption of underlying activity,” explains Rémy Cointreau.

As a result, Rémy Cointreau enhances his prospect of profitability for the current exercise. The group is now awaiting a withdrawal from its current operating profit “mid-single” (between 4% and 6%), against a drop “mid-to-high single Digit” before, that is to say between 4% and 9%.

Rémy Cointreau has also maintained its objective of growth in comparable data for the current exercise “Mid-Single-Digit” of its sales. This progression will mainly be carried by a technical rebound in the United States.

The market had probably already integrated the good news announced by the group. This Friday, the Rémy Cointreau action fell 1.7% on the Paris Stock Exchange around 11:20 am.

Still structural difficulties

On Thursday, Pernod Ricard had, for 35 million euros, estimated the gross impact of American customs duties and 45 million euros that of Chinese customs surcharges.

If groups of spirits know more or less what to stick to customs duties, their horizon is not clear. The prospects communicated by Pernod Ricard on Thursday attest to this. The group has not delivered quantified objectives for the financial year 2025-2026 and said he expected a decline in sales in the first quarter due in particular to stock adjustments in China and the United States.

For Rémy Cointreau, Barclays warned at the end of July that “structural worries persisted”. The bank noted that “depletions”, that is to say the sales of wholesalers to retailers, an advanced indicator of demand, remained “weak”.

“We note that the sector is faced with deep structural winds due to significant industrial stocks resulting from the weakness of China,” said Barclays.

“We remain convinced that growth in China will be limited due to demographic difficulties and the decline in alcohol consumption per capita observed in the last decade,” said the bank.