(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.
The market is in cruel visibility. On the customs duties first of all, after a American court of appeal deemed a good part of them illegal. On the American monetary front and independence in danger of the Fed, then. And of course, on French politics, 5 days of a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, determining for the survival of the Bayrou government.
“The Prime Minister took short the opposition which called for a blocking of the country on September 10, and the financial markets, by subjecting his government to a vote of trust on September 8,” explains Valentin Urrutiaguer, head of Cross-Asset management at Auris Gestion.
“He thus invites deputies to show political spirit by becoming aware of the country’s current situation (” see what is “) and to overcome the partisan cleavages, the opposition parties tend to mitigate the risk of an increase in the deficit (” see what you want “). The probability of a favorable outcome for the Bayrou government is nevertheless weak, as the correction of French banks and at 10 years old. “
The OAT10 years heats up at 3.58%, surreptitiously exceeding 3.60% yesterday, causing a new CAC 40 reflux (-0.70% to 7,654 points). For comparison, its German counterpart is worth 2.78%, and Greek 3.52%.
Alexandre Baradez (IG France) sets the groundwork for the next bond and budgetary deadlines on the markets, after having made the link between bond, politics and equity markets. “Before Monday’s confidence vote, this Thursday’s long -term debt issue of the France Treasury will be followed this Thursday. The volume announced by the agency is between 9.5 and 11 billion euros on 2035, 2042 and 2056 deadlines. A means of measuring the appetite of investors for French debt in this sensitive political and budgetary context,” said the market analyst.
“After the vote of confidence on Monday, it will then be necessary to monitor the decision of the Fitch rating agency, expected on September 12. The current Fitch note is aa- assorted with a” negative perspective “. Will then follow the decisions of Moody’s at the end of October and then Standard & Poor’s at the end of November.”
On the values ​​side, the design offices were inspired on Tuesday and refined their recommendations on several heavy goods vehicles on the Paris coast. This supported the luxury compartment, at the top of the Parisian star index, Kering finishing up 3.8% and LVMH 1.85% after HSBC noted his opinion to “keep” to “buy” on the two titles. Technip Energies won 3.3% while JP Morgan resumed the coverage of the title to overlap with a price target of 47 euros.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in red territory the first session of the week, in a bond context also tense against the background of the independence of the Fed. Recall that Monday was a holiday and unemployed at Wall Street due to the Labor Day. The Dow Jones lost 0.55% on Tuesday and the Nasdaq Composite 0.82%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.69% to 6,415 points.
On the statistical front, this second part of the week presents itself under the sign of American employment, with many indicators in the second half of the week, and in highlight the NFP report (Non farm payrolls), traditional and always very followed federal report on private employment health (excluding agriculture) in the United States. Economists interviewed expect a slight increase in unemployment on an average of 4.3% of the active population, and 74,000 net of positions. Yesterday, preliminary inflation figures in the euro zone for August were on the statistical program of the morning. Regarding consumer prices, figures show slight acceleration in August, with inflation at 2.1% over a year against 2% the previous month.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1700. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.00. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.25%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.15 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the final data of PMI services in the euro zone at 10:00 am, production prices in the euro zone at 11:00 am and new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States at 4:00 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we mentioned, our opinion is positive on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index above the support at 7512.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
