CAC 40: The 8,000 points are refused at CAC

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The mechanics have been definitely well oiled for almost 5 months. The CAC oscillations are very “framed”, such as a wavy snake between two clearly identified terminals: the 7,500/7510 points for the first support, and the 7,940 points for the first resistance. Resistance which was tested on Monday, and which finally repressed the courses, on the eve of a very largely anticipated decision on the part of the Fed.

The Federal Reserve completes this Wednesday a monetary policy committee (FOMC) which should validate unless a lot of surprise, a resumption of the monetary easing movement across the Atlantic.

The Fed clearly paved the way for this monetary easing, from Jackson Hole, based on a marked slowdown in the labor market. Since then, the inflation figures, both for consumer prices and production prices, have never surpassed consensus, strengthening the working hypothesis of a new switchback on the downside on federal rates.

Harvey Bradley, manager of the BNY Investments Absolute Return Bond, thinks that “the Fed is probably worried about seeing job creations turn into job destruction, which would result in a new cycle of layoffs and a drop in consumer expenses. Supporting the labor market by drops in rate means maintaining the balance of the economy and preserving the” full employment “part of its mandate.

The “studs”, that is to say the projections (and not the forecasts) of the Fed members will be closely monitored, with regard to the weakness of the job market. Like the question of the independence of the Fed, after the appointment by President Donald Trump of one of his economic advisers, this Monday, September 15.

Verdict at 8:00 p.m. on Wednesday for the decision and the plots dowry (points diagram), and at 8:30 p.m. for the closing press conference.

Recall that these famous plots dowry represent a point histogram published each quarter. The mechanics are simple: the 12 voting members, under the cover of anonymity, register their feeling as to the level of the Fed Funds for the next deadlines.

It is therefore not the question of French public debt which animates the debates on the markets, although “France brings a little spice to European tranquility”, but “it is indeed across the Atlantic that the essentials are played out”, decides Thomas GIUDICI, responsible for the bond management of Auris Gestion.

The euro / dollar ignored the Fitch’s decision to degrade the French note, and the CAC was overflowing, increasing on Monday as in the decline on Tuesday, the Dax30.

“Two risks remain nevertheless. The first – which encourages us to maintain a prudent posture – would be a more marked weakening than anticipated by the job market, forcing the Fed to lower its rates either by comfort but by necessity, in order to counter a real economic degradation. The second, in contrast, would be a resurgence of inflation supplied by an overwhelming monetary. Resilient, which would force the Fed to turn back earlier than expected. “

On the statistical front, very good news across the Atlantic on retail sales (+0.7% monthly out of automobiles), much above the consensus. A reassuring figure after the publication at the end of last week of the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, preliminary data).

On the values ​​side, Vussegroup rebounded by 13.7%, the specialist in electronic labels for physical businesses raised its 2025 forecasts after a robust first half. Guerbet, on the other hand, fell 23% after lowering its 2025 objectives, citing an opposing environment in France and the United States. EXAIL Technologies dropped by 10.25% despite the publication of semi -annual increases in net progression and a record order book. The publication deemed a little short by the market has also been a pretext for profits on an action which has won more than 500% since the start of the year.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in the red, close to balance, however. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, lost 0.13% at 6,606 points.

One point on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1,850. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 64.40. Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign obligations with 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.02%. As for the VIX, it was worth 16.36 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority consumption prices in the euro zone at 11:00 am and the decision of monetary policy of the Fed at 8:00 pm.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics