CAC 40: a technical barrier difficult to cross

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The CAC 40 lost 0.57% to 7,827 points Wednesday, in a market dominated by the feeling of caution, the day after an intervention by J Powell, president of the Fed, and on the eve of the publication of the final data of American GDP for the second quarter.

Mr Powell took the floor on the occasion of the lunch of presentation of the economic perspectives of the Grand Providence Chamber of Commerce, in Rhode Island. And the tone adopted was particularly careful. “Powell’s prudence slows down the market,” summarizes Stephen Innes of Spi am. “Powell’s main message was once more simple but gives to think: ‘there is no risk without risk’,” he adds.

The boss of the Fed, to the chagrin of Donald Trump, reaffirmed his prudent posture in the process under monetary easing. The president of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) warned Tuesday against “too sustained” declines of guiding rates that would slip inflation, while a governor wants to strike hard and quickly.

“If we soften (monetary policy) in a too sustained way, we risk not achieving our objective in terms of inflation and having to reverse the trend thereafter to bring it fully to 2%,” he said. According to him, interest rates are currently “at the right level to react to potential economic developments”.

The Fed lowered its key rates last week for the first time of the year, a quarter of a percentage point. These rates, which guide borrowing costs, are now in a range between 4% and 4.25%. The primary motivation for this drop in rates was employment, whose signs of weakness are increasing.

“The observed deterioration is real and serious,” said Ecofi economists. “Employment creations have slowed significantly (only 29,000 on average over the last three months, compared to 232,000 in January 2025) or even have been almost non -existent in the so -called cyclical sectors in recent months. The annual revision of the figures made by the Labor Office (BLS) has also highlighted an overestimation of 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025. Hiring, resignation and layoffs.

On the values ​​side, the defense groups were well oriented, Thales winning 2.4% and Dassault Aviation, 1.3%. The entire compartment is carried out by Donald Trump statements, who judged that the NATO countries had to shoot Russian planes if they came into their airspace. The American president has also made a spectacular flip-flop on Ukraine, believing that the assaulted country could regain its original borders, qualifying Russia in passing “paper tiger” …

Bouygues grabbed 0.5% while Morgan Stanley noted his opinion to “online weighting” against “sub-ponder” previously. Emeis, the ex-Orpea rebounded by 10.2% after the group exceeded its target of asset sales through the creation of a property which will benefit from investments of 761 million euros from Farallon Capital and Twentytwo Real Estate funds. Clariane benefits, and resumed 3.3%.

In contrastEXAIL Technologies fell by 2.75% after issuing 300 million euros in hybrid bonds, synonyms of potential dilution for its shareholders. The car sector was also poorly oriented. Red lantern, Stellantis dropped by 3.4%, Renault 1.2%. An analyst evokes information around Stellantis to explain these drops. Several media reported that the Franco-Italian-American group would temporarily stop the production of several European sites, for lack of sufficient activity.

In the statistical chapter, the IFO index of the business climate in Germany emerged slightly at 87.7, against the consensus, mainly due to the “perspective” component of the index, which melts much faster than the “current feeling” component.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.37%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.33%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, rendered 0.28% to 6,637 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market:

> The single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1750.

> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 64.70.

> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.15%.

> As for the Vix, it was worth 16.18 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to be followed in priority, in addition to the Atlantic, the final data of the GDPE2 and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.

The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7940.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics