EUR/USD: Rich monetary and macroeconomic news

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

As a statistical major appointment approach, the euro / dollar tried a resumption of support on an oblique right (drawn in black), the slope of which very directly measures the strength of the substantive trend, that is to say the primary trend in the sense of Dow. At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to be followed in priority for the Bover, across the Atlantic, the final data of GDP2 and the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m.

Yesterday, the Bover was able to take the measure of the business climate in Germany, thanks to the IFO index, emerged slightly at 87.7, against the consensus, mainly due to the “perspective” component of the index, which melts much faster than the component “current feeling”.

Tomorrow, as a statistical highlight of the week, the operators on currencies will take note of the PCEs, consumer prices in the United States, the most direct measurement of retail prices for the individuals, and the preferred indicator of the Fed in its appreciation of inflation. An indicator that will be monitored like milk on the fact while the federal reserve has just rejected its monetary relaxation process. While showing great caution.

Moreover, many governors are expressed this week, after the decrease of 25 basic points in federal guiding rates. His boss, J Powell, expressed himself on Tuesday on Tuesday for the lunch presentation of the economic prospects of the Grand Providence Chamber of Commerce, in the state of Rhode Island.

To the chagrin of Donald Trump, he reaffirmed his prudent posture in the process under monetary easing. The president of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) warned Tuesday against “too sustained” declines of guiding rates that would slip inflation, while a governor wants to strike hard and quickly.

“If we soften (monetary policy) in a too sustained way, we risk not achieving our objective in terms of inflation and having to reverse the trend thereafter to bring it fully to 2%,” he said. According to him, interest rates are currently “at the right level to react to potential economic developments”.

Recall that the Fed lowered its key rates last week for the first time of the year, a quarter of percentage. These rates, which guide borrowing costs, are now in a range between 4% and 4.25%. The primary motivation for this drop in rates was employment, whose signs of weakness are increasing.

In this regard “the observed deterioration is real and serious”, argue ECOFI economists. “Employment creations have slowed significantly (only 29,000 on average over the last three months, compared to 232,000 in January 2025) or even have been almost non -existent in the so -called cyclical sectors in recent months. The annual revision of the figures made by the Labor Office (BLS) has also highlighted an overestimation of 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025. Hiring, resignation and layoffs.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1740 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The slaughtered oblique in black decks, defining the quality of the bottom bullish trend. Following a new support on this benchmark, the Bollinger bands are initiating a slight spacing, we resume our upcoming work on the pair of currencies, which has sufficiently “consolidated”.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1744 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2465 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1599 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 721 pips and the risk of loss is 145 pips.

Daily data graphics