EUR/USD: At heart of Bollinger strips

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Buyer and sellers were acquired on the Pair of Euro / Dollar currencies, while the trade in the viewfinder the publication of the federal private employment health report for the month of September. This “NFP” (for non -Farm Payrolls) will indeed constitute a solid work base for the Fed in the construction of its monetary policy. The last NFP (that of August, therefore), had sounded the alarm, showing a clear degradation of employment health, especially in terms of job creation. It is partly this statistic that had encouraged the Fed to take up, with caution, its monetary easing process.

However, this publication could … not be published, at least in time, due to a possible “Shutdown”. This risk of stopping number of federal services exists, due to a budgetary show between Democrats and Republicans in the Congress.

“In recent years, these blockages have been avoided with compromises. Given the existing animosity today between the two parties, the risk is high of a suspension of the activities of certain services (…) which would leave the markets in the vagueness. Obviously the more this dead end, the more negative for the economy,” commented LBPAM economists.

In the meantime, investors will dissect some American statistics, this afternoon, including in particular the positions of posts.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow in priority real estate data at 3:00 p.m. in the United States. At 4:00 p.m. investors will follow the new job offers (JOLTS) and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).

“The budget impasse at the congress threatens the American administration of paralysis from October 1. If this threat is not linked to the debt ceiling (which reduces potential disturbances), President Trump could use it to justify the dismissal of federal employees. This delicate situation made the febrile markets last week”, analyzes César Perez Ruiz, Pictet Wealth Management.

The asset management decision -maker notes that “growth is[e] Robust while the Fed started its softening cycle. While October arrives, investors should nevertheless monitor certain potential pitfalls: the effect of customs duties on prices, third quarter results and the possibility of a shutdown in the United States, as well as the emergence of circular transactions and suppliers’ funding in the technological sector. “

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1750 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The breakdown of the slaughtered oblique right drawn in black does not put, at this stage in any case, in doubt the power of the upward primary trend, but brings its batch of questioning on the need for consolidation of the pair of currencies. We again issue a neutral opinion on the Eurusd spot, wisely positioned in the heart of the Bollinger bands (20; 2.5).

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1610 and the resistance to 1,1835 USD.

Daily data graphics