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Bad News is … good news, as the Boursier Assuvers said. The survey of the private Human Resources Cabinet ADP has highlighted networks of jobs across the Atlantic, completely missing the target defined by consensus. This employment indicator in the United States has been followed all the more since the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report for the month of September, whose publication is scheduled for Friday, so as not to be published, or at least be postponed due to the “Shutdown”.
In the absence of agreement in the Senate on the budget between the Democrats and Republicans camps, the United States has come in a period of budgetary paralysis – a first since 2018, leading to the closure of many non -essential public services.
It is therefore on this statistic, and on new job offers published the day before, that operators base their feeling on employment health, whose degradation is confirmed. Degradation that had largely contributed to the resumption of the process of softening the monetary policy of the Fed on September 18.
Concretely, the operators are not afraid of the Shutdown, and focus on the accelerated degradation of employment health, an element that can bring the Fed to quickly give soft on the monetary rope.
“Even if the partial paralysis of American administrations could lead to a certain instability, the story seems to indicate that the impact on the markets would be limited,” commented invento economists.
“At the end of 2018, during a shortdown of a record duration of 35 days, the S&P 500 had reached its lowest level on the 3rd day. Then it had recovered to reach 10% of its initial level at the end of this period,” recalls Grégoire Kounowski by Norman K.
“This time the context is slightly different, because the economic prospects are more uncertain. From this point of view, a freezing of federal activities could also have as the main impact a delay in the publication of the data on September employment, initially expected on Friday afternoon,” he adds, however.
According to the monthly investigation of the ADP cabinet, the private sector in the United States, against all odds, destroyed 32,000 jobs in September, where the consensus was aimed at 51,000 job creations. Unheard of since March 2023. The figure for August was also revised to display a destruction of 3,000 positions against 54,000 posts of posts initially estimated.
“While the September employment report may not be published because of the Shutdown, the figures published this week, and in particular the ADP report, still validates the hypothesis that the labor market is in high slowdown. This could even deteriorate more with the Shutdown,” says Bastien Drut. “Consequently, there is no doubt that the Fed will continue its cycle of rate drops: will the question become ‘accelerating this cycle?'” Asks the market specialist.
Relegated to the background, the German component of the PMI Manufacturer of September, released at 48.5 in the first estimate, is finally revised at 49.5 in final data. Recall that the “score” is still below 50 points, which separates a contraction from an expansion of the sector considered. In addition, updated estimates of consumer prices in the euro zone are confirmed at +2.3% in annual rate, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco.
The Parisian market in any case has not seen all of its components participate fully in the rise of the day on Wednesday. Two important weights, Sanofi (+8.44%) and Arcelor Mittal (+5.30%) towed the tricolor flagship index.
Like all health groups in Europe and Paris, Sanofi jumped 8.4%, carried by the agreement concluded by Pfizer with the Trump administration concerning the price reductions in medication in the United States. Analysts believe that this agreement gives significant visibility to the pharmaceutical sector on the stock market.
ArcelorMittal increased by 5.3%, the action of the steelmaker who jumped after Stéphane Séjénéné, vice-president of the European Commission, confirmed that Brussels had increased customs taxes on imports of foreign steel. This protectionist measure could weigh on China exports, which for several years have been looking for international outlets, creating an excess of supply on the market.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.09%) and especially the composite Nasdaq (+0.42%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.34% to 6,711 points.
A point on other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning
> On the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1740.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.00.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, were negotiated slightly above 4.11%.
> As for the Vix, it was worth 16.20 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic.
Key graphics elements
The vast tidy (lateral canal), whose amplitude was once again redefined on July 31 and August 1, retains meaning, and the discharge of courses on Monday August 25, in contact with the high terminal confirms it. The 7,500 points are reinforced in their support role as much as the 7,940 points are in their role of resistance. They are therefore intervention areas to favor, in this clearly bipolarized market. A very technical market, which offers readable opportunities provided you remain yourself, as an investor, waterproof to ambient nervousness.
The index currently tests, without success, the high terminal of this tidy. This level (7,940 points) constitutes a major resistance. The index multiplies the candles with high pronounced wick on its approach.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8000.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7682.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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