FRANKFURT (Reuters) – European Central Bank (ECB) officials are in no rush to cut key rates again, even though they are keenly aware of the exceptionally high level of uncertainty and risks, minutes of their September 10-11 monetary policy meeting showed on Thursday.

The ECB left its key rates unchanged in September and even presented a slightly optimistic assessment of the euro zone economy, suggesting its monetary easing cycle was all but over, although US tariffs still clouded the outlook.

“The current level of interest rates should be considered sufficiently robust to handle shocks, taking into account inflation risks in both directions and a wide range of possible scenarios,” reads the ECB “minutes”.

The likelihood of further rate cuts has further diminished in the weeks following the meeting, given the latest economic data and comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who sees the range of risks surrounding the inflation outlook narrowing.

The probability of a further cut in ECB rates by the end of the year is judged by the markets to be practically zero. They estimate a one in three chance of the resumption of the monetary easing cycle during the first half of 2026.

“The current situation is likely to change significantly at some point, but it is currently unclear when and in what direction,” the ECB minutes also read.

“The wait for additional information continues to be of high importance,” the bank continues.

The door to further easing is not completely closed, however, given current risks: France is going through a political crisis, while in Germany, industrial production is in free fall and exports to the United States are declining rapidly.

Furthermore, in the euro zone, household savings continue to increase, while private consumption is weak and corporate profitability is reduced.

(Written by Balazs Koranyi; Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)

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