(News Bulletin 247) – The car manufacturer recorded one of the biggest increases in the CAC 40 this Friday, driven by good commercial figures. Over one month, the car manufacturer recorded an impressive rebound of 22%, fueled by market share gains in the United States, scrappage valuation and the difficulties of competitors.

For more than a year, Stellantis has been much more accustomed to the dunce cap than to the honor roll on the stock market. Between March 2024 and last April, the stock went from star status (Stellantis had the best performance of the SBF 120 in 2023, with an increase of 59%) to that of a dunce. Its stock price was then divided by three, approximately.

The group was weighed down by a plunge in its sales in North America, its major profit engine. The current operating margin in this region fell from 16.4% in 2023, a stratospheric level for a general automobile manufacturer, to a negative rate (-3.4%) in the first half of 2025.

Due to aggressive pricing and an inventory problem that previous management took too long to take seriously, the Franco-Italian-American company saw its market share plunge in the United States.

Its second region, Europe, faces significant competitive pressures. Stellantis’ results followed the (bad) trend. Over the first six months of 2025, the company recorded a net loss of 2.3 billion euros and burned through 3 billion euros of cash.

However, there is a small glimmer of hope. The car manufacturer gained 1.6% at the end of the morning this Friday, signing one of the biggest increases in the CAC 40, after having published its shipments (or its sales in volume to simplify) for the third quarter.

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A lenient basis of comparison

Over the period from July to the end of September, Stellantis volumes rose 13% year-on-year to reach 1.3 million units, driven in particular by North America where sales jumped 35% year-on-year to 403,000 vehicles.

According to UBS, the consensus (the average forecast of analysts) expected an increase of 12% overall and, above all, an increase limited to 20% in North America. Europe remained below expectations (growth of 8% compared to expectations of +15%).

“Deliveries are a little better than expected, after which the basis for comparison was easy,” explains an analyst. In the third quarter of 2024, Stellantis volumes had plunged 20% year-on-year. Volumes were then weighed down by the actions that the company had initiated to reduce its inventories which had reached a dangerously high level in the United States.

Stellantis does not say anything else in its press release published this Friday and accompanying these figures.

“This significant improvement primarily reflects the benefits of normalized inventory dynamics, compared to the previous year’s inventory reduction initiative, which temporarily reduced production,” explains the group, regarding North America.

These third quarter shipments nevertheless remain encouraging, after a first very positive signal sent last week. In the United States, the group’s sales increased by 13.5% in September, significantly outperforming the market (+6.4%) according to data from Autodata, cited by Royal Bank of Canada. Above all, the company’s market share had rebounded to 8.7% compared to 8.2% a year earlier, an improvement expected for many months by investors.

The action then took off by 8.3% after the publication of this data. “There was a strong recovery in Stellantis’ market share in September (…) There is the hope that we are at a ‘tipping point’ (an inflection point) in the recovery of North American activities, which are the big driver of Stellantis’ profitability,” explained a financial intermediary at the time. “Especially since these market share gains were made with stable ‘incentives’ (incentives, such as promotions or discounts, Editor’s note), ” he added.

The desire to want

Beyond this data, investors seem to want to bet on Stellantis. On September 11, the stock had already taken off by 9.2%, catapulted by simple comments from its new general director, Antonio Filosa, who took the helm of the company in June, succeeding Carlos Tavares.

According to UBS, the manager then spoke, during a conference, of robust orders for the Ram V8 Hemi truck, a very profitable model, and assured that the stock situation at his American dealers was “healthy”. UBS judged that the stock’s jump could also have been fueled by “short buybacks”, that is to say short sellers who unwound their positions by acquiring the stock.

On Monday, the stock was one of the few to survive (+3.4%) on the CAC 40, while the Parisian index was weighed down by the announcement of the resignation of Sébastien Lecornu. Autonews reported that the company would invest an additional $5 billion in the United States. Even though such a decision would be synonymous with greater cash consumption, UBS judged that this decision would constitute “a good thing to strengthen competitiveness in the United States”.

More broadly, over one month, Stellantis shares rose more than 22%. On the CAC 40, only one other stock did better over the period: Kering (+38%), electrified by the market’s pronounced enthusiasm for its new general director, Luca de Meo.

“There is a desire on the part of the market even if it remains preliminary. The German manufacturers and Renault are encountering difficulties, there is the story of the new general manager to play at Stellantis, the bases of comparison (on sales, editor’s note) are favorable and the title had fallen very low. So it is not shocking that the action rebounds from low levels”, underlines the anonymous financial intermediary quoted at the beginning of this article.

Too early to plan?

Now deprived of the architect of its spectacular recovery, Luca de Meo, who left Kering, Renault is not in the best shape. The group issued a heavy profit warning in July, causing the stock to plunge by 18%. “The dual upheaval in direction and purpose has brought to the fore issues of scale, size and global footprint that never went away, but have been pushed to the back burner by the operational turnaround of recent years,” Jefferies wrote in early September.

German manufacturers Volkswagen, BMW and Porsche have also issued profit warnings in recent weeks.

“Afterwards, it may be a little early to play the rebound of Stellantis, because there is a lot of uncertainty about the abilities of management to really turn things around quickly,” continues the financial intermediary.

UBS shows caution in its note published this Friday. “If the recent stabilization of sales in the United States (with a positive result in September) is an encouraging sign, it is still too early to say that the current operating margin in North America will become positive again in the second half,” writes the Swiss bank.

Stellantis will report its third quarter earnings on October 30. UBS believes that many elements during the conference call are likely to have a notable impact on the stock price, such as comments on demand in Europe and the United States, on standards for CO2 emissions, on the reception of new models or even on new customs duties on trucks.

“We believe volatility is likely to remain high in the near term, while prospects for improvement in 2026 remain low (depending on further market share gains in the US). Therefore, we believe it is too early to consider Stellantis a turnaround story to play in 2026,” the Swiss bank concludes.