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The week opens with French budgetary issues still in mind, while this weekend, the Standard & Poor’s agency lowered its rating on French debt, downgrading it from AA- to A+ with a negative outlook. The verdict was not expected until November 28. A verdict which does not shake the market in the sense of the pre-opening data. On Friday, the CAC was close to its historic peaks during the session.
However, the trajectory of French public finances remains a source of concern. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs indicated that it was counting on a deficit of 5.3% of GDP for 2026, while Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu declared this week that the rate should not exceed 5% in the 2026 finance bill, once the parliamentary debate is completed.
“We still anticipate little progress in reducing the public deficit (…) In any case, deep political disagreements, slowing growth and higher borrowing costs risk preventing any significant progress,” the bank said.
Remember that on Thursday, the Lecornu 2 government escaped two motions of censure, including that filed by LFI. The ax has gone to 18 votes.
On the values side, the biggest notable event of the week certainly remains the publication of LVMH’s third quarter activity, which was welcomed on the stock market on Wednesday, with the stock climbing 12.22%. The number one luxury company took analysts’ expectations by surprise by returning to growth (on a comparable basis) in the third quarter. Above all, its fashion and leather goods division, the most followed, fell by 2% over the period, half as much as expected by the research offices. The star of the day, Friday, was called EssilorLuxottica (+12.9%), The company published thunderous activity in the third quarter thanks to the boom in its AI glasses. Which pushed Bank of America to raise its purchase advice. “Wearables”, that is to say artificial intelligence glasses developed with Meta, are causing panic.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Friday’s session in the green, like the Dow Jones (+0.52%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.52%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.53% to 6,664 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning
> On the foreign exchange market the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1660.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $56.70.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield on federal sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years, were trading slightly above the 4.02%.
> As for the VIX, it was worth 20.80 at the last close of the S&P500.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, follow the index of leading indicators (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flagship tricolor index is now moving in a range between 7,940 and the historic highs at 8,260 points, in volatility, with the formation of gaps and volumes which blur the technical message in the short term. The opinion will remain neutral as long as the 8,000 symbolic points do not play a serious role in graphic support.
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 8260.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7940.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
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