(News Bulletin 247) – Session of great nervousness on the Paris Stock Exchange yesterday, where the CAC 40 (+0.98% to 6,508 points), showed some resistance in the face of the contraction of American GDP in the first quarter , recognizing the role of the 6,380 points as an intermediate support.
The growth rate came out down 1.4% quarter on quarter, against expectations of +1.1%, according to the latest figures from the BEA, published yesterday before the opening of Wall Street. The second estimate is scheduled for May 26. According to the reaction of the Nasdaq Composite in particular, which gained more than 3%, it is a form of relief for markets which expect a little more “leniency” in the next interventions of the Fed. . In any case, the extreme scenario, but which was part of the universe of possibilities, of an increase of 75 basis points seems swept away. It should also be noted that weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, which came out at an almost stable level and in line with expectations, at 180,000 new units for week 16.
However, the underlying framework remains not conducive to risk taking. Despite publications which, all in all, testify to the resilience, if not the dynamism, of corporate activity during the first quarter, investors and fund managers are struggling to find grounds for optimism in the outlook for the rest of the year.
On the stock side, note the outperformance of the “Growth” pan of the technology rating, which are very sensitive to the bond issue. These include Cap Gemini (+5.15% to 196.10 euros), Dassault Systèmes (+5.72% to 42.72 euros), or Wordline (+6.77% to 38.16 euros).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices closed in green territory, like the Dow Jones (+1.85% to 33,916 points), but especially the Nasdaq Composite (+3.06 % at 12,871 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, rose 2.47% to 4,287 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0540. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $100.
To follow in priority, on the agenda this Friday, the very first estimates of inflation in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m. and the PCE price index in the United States at 2:30 p.m.
In very early estimates for the first quarter, French GDP has stalled, missing expectations (+0.3% quarterly), according to INSEE figures published this morning. “These data point to a marked drop in demand in France, in particular household demand, weighed down first by the pandemic and then by inflation and pessimism linked to the war in Ukraine”, analyzes Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ‘ING France in a macro note.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In just two sessions, the flagship Parisian index cleared up two remaining gaps, one bullish, from March 16, the other bearish, from April 25, again activating the scenario of a sideways drift around 6,500 points. . The volumes are put under surveillance, especially on any rapid navigation from one terminal to another or on breaks, if any, of one or other of these terminals.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6760.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6380.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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