(News Bulletin 247) – A higher opening is expected this Thursday on the Nasdaq Composite index, after the sequence, in powerful and growing volumes, of a marubozu school black, and a doji with a pronounced high wick. A large segment of investors will try to hunt for bargains (for how long?), while the flagship index of US listed technology stocks has fallen by more than 20% since the start of the year, against a backdrop of rising bond yields with the Fed’s stated firmness. The market has already ticked May 4 on the agenda, with the outcome of a new FOMC. A 50 basis point advance in Fed Funds is “on the table”.
Relief this Thursday: the extreme scenario, but which was part of the universe of possibilities, of a 75 basis point hike seems swept away by the very first estimates of US GDP in the first quarter, which came out down 1.4% quarter on quarter, against expectations at +1.1%, according to the latest figures from the BEA, published a few minutes ago. The second estimate is scheduled for May 26.
“The drop in GDP reflects lower private investment in inventory, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the GDP calculation, rose. “Personal consumption expenditure (PCE), non-residential fixed investment and residential fixed investment for their part increased,” reads the statement accompanying the raw figures.
Yesterday at the heart of the quarterly results publication season, Microsoft (+4.81% to $283.22) seduced, unlike Alphabet (-3.67% to $2,285.89), which missed expectations . Texas Instruments (+0.56% to $169.39 ended in extremis in positive territory, starting from a long way off. Tesla (+0.58% to $881.51, -12% Tuesday) remains under surveillance, investors showing concern at the prospect of seeing E. Musk reduce his stake in order to finalize the financing of all the shares of Twitter, whose action (-2.09% to $48.64) is far from aligning with the course offered by the whimsical billionaire ($54.20).
Another statistical figure released today, also monitored by the Fed, is weekly jobless claims, which came out at a virtually stable level and in line with expectations, at 180,000 new units for week 16.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The thin trading range that we identify that 13,330 and 13,838 points has been broken under conditions of volumes, volatility, and very significant candles. the marubozu traced Thursday shows in particular a mobilization of the selling camp throughout the session, until a close almost exactly on the low points, opening the way to a bearish target CT at 12,640 points. The latter was affected yesterday, and the issue until the end of the week will be its preservation, or not. Below, a danger zone is identified. In the immediate future, the scenario of a rebound in protest is taking shape.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is positive on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bullish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is quoted above the support at 12140.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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