“We need constant epidemiological surveillance and a ban on flights from some African countries until we have a better picture of the evolving situation,” said Health Policy Professor Elias Mosialos of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in a Facebook post. appearance of a new African variant with many mutations.
He also points out that “in many other cases we were very worried but in the end, with the exception of the Alpha and Delta variants, we did not have any particular problems. Whenever the new variant is a little more dangerous but less contagious than Delta, then maybe there should be no particular problem “.
Mr. Mosialos states that “there is indeed concern internationally about the new variant of the coronavirus, which is called the Botswana variant, until it is renamed and given a Greek letter. Of course, it is wrong to call it the Botswana variant, because its existence in Botswana, but the variation may have started in another African country. “
He recalled that he had “pointed out since the beginning of the pandemic that if we do not have mass vaccination of the vast majority of the world’s population, the possibility of new variants, especially in areas with low vaccination rates, will be high. Unfortunately, in Africa only 6, “5% of the population is fully vaccinated.”
What do we know so far about this variant?
“We originally had 4 cases in Botswana of vaccinated people. This does not mean that there are no more cases in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. It is also not true what various international media wrote that the 4 cases concerned HIV patients. “There are several cases in South Africa and one in Hong Kong involving a traveler from South Africa.”
But why are health authorities in Africa and other countries concerned? Because, as Mr. Mosialos says, “the new variant coexists with 32 mutations in the virus spike protein. Because it has also been detected in vaccinated individuals, there is concern that vaccines may not be effective against this variant. Infections do occur in vaccinated individuals.” We know that vaccines are extremely effective in treating Delta and preventing severe infection in the vast majority of people who are vaccinated. “Nevertheless, a small percentage of those vaccinated, around 10-20%, will get a mild illness.”
So why are health authorities worried about the new variant? As he explains, “because they fear that the combination of the 32 mutations may make the new variant both more dangerous (increased incidence of severe infection and increased mortality) and more contagious.”
What do we know so far? “We already know several of the 32 mutations because we found them in previous variants.
So why worry then? Because there are new mutations that coexist with the already known ones.
We will find out from laboratory experiments if the new variant is dangerous; “But we will not be absolutely sure.”
Mr. Mosialos points out that “in recent months we have heard of other variants such as those of California, Peru (Lambda), New York, Nigeria, Brazil, South Africa, and even Delta plus.”
“Their appearance had worried the health authorities a lot, but fortunately in the end they did not have any serious health effects.
For some of them, the laboratory findings indicated that they would either be more dangerous or highly contagious.
But what happened in the end? Delta prevailed because it is transmitted much more easily than the other variants and not only overtook, but literally ‘swallowed’ – to put it simply – its competitors. But there is an increase in cases in South Africa.
What about Delta there, one wonders? It is true that there is an increase. But we are talking about an increase in a country that had significantly reduced the spread of the pandemic. Whenever the new variant may have found ground to expand because the Delta was not widely circulated. The same thing happened with other variants for a while in the past, but they disappeared in the competition with Delta “.
Mr. Mosialos concludes by saying that “the role of health authorities and public health specialists is not to create panic. Their role is to identify problems in a timely manner, to analyze them calmly with an interdisciplinary approach, but also to take timely measures when needed. “
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