Are you afraid of airplanes? Flying is about to get even scarier

Most of us have experienced turbulence during one air travel. In the U.S. alone, 65,000 planes crash into moderate turbulence—those that cause objects to fall and force flight attendants to strap into their seats—each year. But 5,500 planes a year fall into serious turbulence, the kind that can cause injuries. Now, experts warn that air travel will become more difficult. According to scientists who spoke to CNN, severe turbulence will double or even triple in the coming decades due to climate change.

The three types of turbulence

Excluding fatal airplane crashes, turbulence is the leading cause of flight attendant and passenger injuries, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration, and is one of the most common types of aviation accidents today. Turbulence costs US airlines up to $500 million a year in injuries, delays and damage.

“There is a scale to measure how strong turbulence is,” tells CNN o Paul Williams, professor at the University of Reading. “There is slight turbulence, where you feel a little pressure on your seat belt, but food can continue to be served and you can probably walk around the cabin, maybe with some difficulty.”

“Then there’s moderate turbulence, where you’ll definitely feel the pressure of the seat belt, anything unsecured will move and walking is difficult. Flight attendants are usually instructed to sit in their seats”he adds.

“The worst kind is strong turbulence: These are stronger than gravity, so they can pin you to your seat and if you’re not wearing a seatbelt you’ll be thrown into the cabin. This is the kind of turbulence that causes serious injuries, such as broken bones.”

Williams believes that climate change is affecting turbulence and began studying the issue in 2013. “We did some computer simulations and found that strong turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” he says.

At the heart of this change is a type of turbulence called “clear sky turbulence” (clear air turbulence) and is not associated with any visible indication, such as storms or clouds. These turbulences strike suddenly and are difficult to avoid.

Figures show that from 2009 to 2018, pilots had no warning in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents. Williams’ analysis predicts that clear-sky turbulence will increase significantly worldwide by 2050-2080. And strong turbulence is the one that will increase the most.

This does not mean, however, that flights will be any less safe. “Planes are not going to start falling out of the sky because the planes are built to a very high standard and can withstand the worst turbulence they could ever encounter, even in the future.”says Williams.

However, the average duration of turbulence will increase, testing the psychology of all passengers and especially those who fear air travel. “Typically, on a transatlantic flight, you should expect 10 minutes of turbulence. I think in a few decades that might increase to 20 minutes or half an hour. The seat belt light will be on for much longer, unfortunately for passengers,” he explains.

Changes

Keeping your seat belt on at all times while seated is the best way to minimize the risk of injury due to turbulence.

Flight attendants, however, are more exposed to this risk than passengers and sustain approximately 80% of turbulence-related injuries.

The airline industry may need to tighten regulations, as for example in the case of children under the age of two, who today fly in their parents’ arms.

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