Current targets and policies are insufficient to limit global warming, says UN

The policies currently in place and the new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to meet the commitments made in the Paris Agreement in 2015. With what is being done at the moment, the world should reach an increase of 2 .8°C by the end of the century, well above the desired 1.5°C, preferably.

Published this Thursday (27), the annual report on emissions gaps (Emissions Gap Report), from UNEP (United Nations Environment Program), states that there has been very little progress to reduce “the immense gap in emissions to 2030 “, since COP26 (the UN conference on climate change) in Glasgow in 2021.

The document’s objective is, basically, to show the difference between the countries’ climate goals (known as NDC, or nationally determined contribution) and the necessary cuts so that the planet does not exceed what was agreed under the Paris Agreement, that is, limit global warming to less than 2°C and, preferably, keep the temperature rise below 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.

Currently, the world is already about 1.1°C warmer.

According to the UNEP report, the new climate targets submitted by countries since the last COP bring a reduction of only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO_twoand (read CO_two equivalent, a way of adding up all the greenhouse gases in the form of carbon dioxide) compared to promises made up until the conference in Glasgow.

“Countries are not even on track to meet the highly insufficient climate targets,” the document points out.

Broadly speaking, the hole size for 2030 for a 2°C warming scenario is 15 gigatons per year; for the up to 1.5°C scenario, the gap is 23 gigatons.

To keep the 1.5°C alive —which was the motto of COP26—, in just eight years, global annual emissions need to be reduced by 45% compared to what is currently underway. It does not stop there. Greenhouse gas emissions need to continue to fall rapidly beyond 2030 in order to avoid spending our entire carbon budget, that is, how much we can still emit without raising the temperature above the levels agreed in the Paris Agreement.

“Global economic transformations are needed to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C,” the document states. “Any fraction of a degree matters.”

The UNEP report warns that global greenhouse gas emissions have increased over the past ten years — although the rate of increase (1.1% per year) has slowed from the previous decade (2.6% per year).

Brazil, in seventh place, is among the largest emitters in the world. The list is led by China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia and Russia. In per capita emissions, Brazil is fourth, behind the United States, Russia and China.

Brazil’s recent target update has an important particularity to be mentioned, which is highlighted by the UNEP report. The new Brazilian NDC, submitted by the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL), leads to an increase in emissions in the country, which are mainly the result of deforestation and livestock activity.

It is a Brazilian “climate pedaling”, already announced during COP26, but made official only this year. Among the updated national targets are carbon neutrality by 2050, a 37% reduction in greenhouse gases in 2025, compared to 2005 emissions, and a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases in 2030, also in compared to 2005.

The “pedaling” occurs because there was a change in the 2005 emissions data, which was updated in the most recent national inventories of greenhouse gases, that is, there was a change in the basis of comparison.

The first Brazilian NDC is from 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. In it, Brazil commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43%, in relation to 2005, by 2030. In this scenario and with the data available at that time, the country would emit, in 2030, about 1,208 gigatonnes of CO_twoand.

With the evolution of methodologies for measuring gases, the 2005 data were corrected and increased. The Brazilian target, however, was not aligned with this correction and remained at a 43% reduction. As the baseline data (2005) are smaller, the 43% reduction came to mean higher emissions in 2030 (about 1,620 gigatons), compared to what was initially promised.

In addition to Brazil, Mexico also presented an updated target that results in increased emissions.