Omicron variant: The first data show reduced morbidity

The outbreak of Omicron in South Africa in early December, in a country with high levels of molecular epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19, signaled the “bell” around the world for the arrival of a highly contagious coronavirus strain. The first empirical reports spoke of mild cases compared to those seen in previous waves, however these personal observations would need additional data to objectively prove the milder clinical picture of the disease.

The Professors of the Medical School of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Gikas Majorkinis and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of EKPA) state that we now have evidence that converges that Omicron has a much lower morbidity than the previous executives:

1) First, three weeks after the outbreak of Omicron, the system in South Africa is not in a state of pressure while the number of deaths has increased but to a much lower level than observed for similar increases in cases in previous waves. Also at present no country reports pressure on the health system as a result of an outbreak of the Omicron variant.
2) A pre-publication from South African data shows that the risk of hospitalization compared to Delta is reduced 3 to 4 times
3) The technical analysis from the Imperial College London based on Delta and Omicron cases in the United Kingdom initially found no statistically significant difference. This initial analysis was based on 24 case admissions to Omicron executive hospitals compared to 1392 Delta executive admissions. The chances of admission seemed to be lower for the cases with Omicron strain, however they were cases at a young age and therefore the statistical analysis did not have the power to reach safe conclusions. However, the updated analysis made available yesterday, showed that the probability of admission to the hospital is significantly reduced (by 15%) for cases infected with Omicron compared to Delta, while also significantly reduced hospitalization time (by 40%). The researchers believe that this significant reduction is due to the fact that a large part of the population may have been infected by previous strains without being recorded and re-infections are those that have a much lower chance of hospitalization (by 50-70%).

In conclusion, the data converge that Omicron has a significantly reduced severity of infection, however we can not come to safe conclusions about the stress that the strain will cause in health systems due to its increased transmissibility. Another key element that is missing from the analyzes is the estimation of the mortality of the strain, something that will take about 1 more month to draw safe conclusions.

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