This year is already predicted to be warmer than 2022 – Scientists warn of worsening extreme weather events around the world
Scientists warn of a return of the El Niño climate phenomenon later this year and unprecedented heat waves.= in the wake of climate change.
Early forecasts, according to the Guardian website, show that El Niño will return later in 2023, exacerbating extreme weather events around the world and making it “very likely” that the planet’s temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The warmest year on record so far was 2016.
This year is already predicted to be warmer than 2022, which global datasets rank as the fifth or sixth warmest year on record. But El Niño occurs during the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its warming effect takes months to be felt, meaning 2024 is much more likely to set a new global temperature record.
Greenhouse gases emitted by human activity have increased the average global temperature by about 1.2 C to date. This has already led to devastating effects around the world, from devastating heatwaves in the US and Europe to devastating floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, affecting millions of people.
“It is very likely that the next big El Niño will push us above 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-term forecasting at the UK Met Office.
“We know that in the context of climate change, the effects of El Niño events will become stronger, and we have to add that to the effects of climate change itself, which is increasing all the time,” he said. “You put these two things together and we are likely to see unprecedented heat during the next El Niño,” he stressed.
The effects of the El Niño-La Niña cycle could be seen in many areas of the world, Scaife said. “Science can now tell us when these things are coming months in advance. So we really need to use it and be more prepared, from the readiness of emergency services to what crops to plant,” he concluded.
The scale of the potential El Niño is still unclear. Professor Andy Turner, from the University of Reading, said: “Many seasonal forecast models suggest the arrival of moderate El Niño conditions from summer 2023.”
The picture will be much clearer by June, according to scientists.
El Niño-La Niña phenomena are the biggest cause of annual variations in weather in many regions.
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