Professor Spyros Pavlidis estimates that “our data show which parts of the fault or which neighboring faults are in the stress redistribution zone.
In a radius of more than 300 kilometers on the great East Anatolian riftthe zone where aftershocks or other earthquakes are likely to occur has been extended, following the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit southeastern Turkey and Syria in the early hours of February 6.
These are cracks, which have matured and are affected by redistribution of the tectonic stresses caused by the rupture of the main earthquake, which extends over a length of 100 km.
“The original break-in from the 6/2/2023 M7.8 earthquake, in the southern part of the East Anatolia fault, was of the order of 100 km. This deformation redistributed tectonic stresses, transferring stresses in the northeast and southwest parts of the fault and in parts east and west. From these areas, another northwest-striking fault located 95 kilometers from the epicenter of the main earthquake was activated and produced the 7.5-magnitude earthquake 9 hours later. This earthquake was followed by its own large aftershocks with magnitudes of more than 6 degrees,” said Mr. Professor of Neotectonics and Paleoseismology of the Department of Geology, AUTH, Spyros Pavlidis.
It is important, as Mr. Pavlidis explained, that “these data show us which parts of the fault or which neighboring faults are in the stress redistribution zone”. “Any of them that are mature, like the one that produced the 7.5 earthquake, are candidates for aftershocks or other earthquakes in the region. In other words, they show in the zone around the fault in a radius of 300 kilometers which faults are likely to be activated”, he explained.
The data for the stress transfer calculation is obtained from the United States Geological Survey and is constantly updated. The 300-kilometer zone, “is a very large zone”, observed the AUTH professor, clarifying that the AUTH research team is in constant communication with their colleagues in Turkey who collect daily data on land deformations. As he added, the geological study is expected to give impressive results for surface ruptures and other surface deformation phenomena, such as cracks, soil liquefaction, landslides. In any case field observation will require months of research.
RES-EMP
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