Climate models used to investigate climate change do not accurately reflect the future of the Arctic, according to researchers at the University of Gothenburg, who warn that the rate of temperature increase will be much faster than estimated.

Because of the Arctic sea ice cover and its harsh climate, relatively few observations are made in this region. This means that the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others to assess the future of the Arctic are not regulated to the same extent as in other parts of the world. At the same time, however, the Arctic is an important area for monitoring the future intensity of global warming.

In two recent scientific studies, scientists at the University of Gothenburg compared the results of climate models with real observations and concluded that the temperature increase in the Arctic Ocean will occur at a much faster rate than predicted by climate models.

“These climate models underestimate the consequences of climate change. In fact, relatively warm waters in Arctic regions are even warmer and closer to sea ice. Consequently, we believe that the Arctic sea ice will melt faster than predicted,” explains Celine Heuse, a climatologist at the University of Gothenburg and leader of one of the studies. She points out the need to improve climate models, as today “we cannot provide a useful prediction of how fast the Arctic sea ice is melting”.