It is now “inevitable” that the 1.5°C global warming limit compared to pre-industrial times will be exceeded “permanently” and “for many years”, and the chances are 50-50 that this will happen in in just seven years, scientists from the Global Carbon Project warn today, calling for action.

According to the benchmark study, presented at UN climate summit in Dubaithe CO2 emissions produced by the burning of coal, gas and oil and its by-products on a global scale and warming the planet may reach new record in 2023.

In 2015, with the Paris Agreement, world leaders set a goal of not exceeding the 1.5° Celsius limit to avoid the risk of repeated heatwaves and changesprofound, if not irreversible, in nature due to human activity.

Leaders participating in COP28 “they must agree to exist rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, if only to maintain the goal of 2° Celsius”noted British climatologist Pierre Friedlingstein, who is overseeing the study involving 150 researchers from around the world.

“Measures to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remain hopelessly slow”the scientist chirped. “The time left between now and the 1.5°C limit is shrinking at an alarming rate, action must be taken now”he added.

Last year, these scientists estimated that the 1.5°C limit would be exceeded in nine years.

2024 is already shaping up to be a dark year for global warming as well, with the El Niño climate phenomenon increasing in strength in the Pacific, raising the risk that vegetation, which humanity needs to absorb some of its CO2 emissions, will suffer. .

Four times since 1960

In the study it is estimated that the total global carbon dioxide emissions that will be added to the atmosphere throughout 2023 will reach the 49.9 billion tons.

It’s about quantity four times since 1960 and the emissions curve, instead of going down, remains flat for ten years, the researchers point out.

THE rainforest deforestationabove all in Brazil, DR Congo and Indonesia, plays a role, which, however, cannot be compared to use of fossil fuels and cementwhich remains out of control, at 36.8 billion tons (+1.1% compared to 2022).

In 26 countries, representing 28% of global emissions, efforts are being made to reduce emissions linked to fossil fuels (-7.4% in the European Union, -3% in the USA), but it is not enough, the text underlines.

The return of international aviation to normal levels has increased the sector’s emissions by leaps and bounds (+28.2%) this year.

Pollutant number 1, o carbon it continues to be widely used and emissions attributable to its combustion will increase further this year (+1.1%). Its use has increased, especially in China and India, as well as in other countries of the world. It has been greatly reduced in the EU, as well as in the US, which is, however, replacing it with gas burning.

The same trend is recorded with regard to oil (32% of global emissions, compared to 41% of coal), the emissions due to the combustion of which were expected to increase in 2023 (+1.5%), due to China and India, while there is a slight decrease in other states. For gas, the trend is the same (+0.5%), as for cement (+0.8%).

Explosive increase in emissions in India

The main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, is released when gas is burned, oil, coal and after it is produced, it takes tens of years before it dissolves. Its concentration is considered the main factor causing global warming.

Indiawhich in particular utilizes coal-burning power plants to meet the surge in electricity demand, became from 2022 the country with the third largest emissions on the planetfar behind China and the US, but above the EU. Its emissions are expected to increase by 8% plus compared to 2022, at a much faster rate than China’s (+4%).

In proportion to its population—India became the world’s most populous country this year, with 1.425 billion inhabitants—the giant country’s emissions remain less than seven times those of USA and five times more than hers Europethe study says.

“If the whole world emitted as much as every American”, the world would be heading “toward a 4° Celsius increase in global temperature”, observes French physicist Philippe Siès.