Damages to crops, infrastructure, productivity and health from climate change will cost up to $38 trillion annually by 2050, and that figure is almost certain to rise as human activity emits more greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect, according to a study released today.

The economic impacts of climate change are not fully understood, and economists often disagree about their extent.

The study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which is supported by the German government, stands out because of the severity of its findings. It is estimated, among other things, that climate change will reduce global GDP by 17% by the middle of the century.

“The world’s population is poorer than it would be without climate change,” said Leonie Wentz, a climate data researcher and co-author of the study. “It costs us much less to protect the climate than to not do it,” he added.

The cost of measures to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, compared to the temperature of the pre-industrial era, is estimated to reach 6 trillion. dollars by 2050. That would be less than one-sixth the cost of the damage that would be caused if warming exceeded that level, according to the study.

While previous studies have concluded that climate change will benefit the economies of some countries, the PIK finds that almost all will suffer – and poor, developing countries will be hit hardest. The damage assessment is based on forecasts of temperature and rainfall. Extreme weather events and other climate-related disasters such as forest fires and sea level rise are not taken into account. It is also based only on current emissions, although their volume continues to rise to record levels.

Governments are not only spending little to curb emissions of greenhouse gases, but are also lagging behind in spending on climate change adaptation.

In this study, researchers compared temperatures and precipitation in more than 1,600 regions over the past 40 years and examined the costs of these phenomena. They then used climate model predictions to estimate future damage. If emissions continue at current rates and the average global temperature rises above 4 degrees Celsius, the estimated economic loss after 2050 will rise to 60% of income by 2100. Limiting the temperature increase to 2 degrees would reduce these losses to 20%, on average.