The second volume of the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released on 28 February. The message is clear and harsh: greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 to avoid a climate catastrophe.
About 3.3 billion people live in areas of high vulnerability. An average increase in global temperature of 1.5°C can make around 8% of agricultural land unviable for planting. An increase of 2ºC would lead to water shortages, harm agriculture and fisheries, and cause severe famine in the most vulnerable areas.
António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, described the document as an “atlas of human suffering.” Suffering, however, is unequal. Between 2010 and 2020, vulnerable areas in Africa, South Asia and South America saw 15 times more deaths from drought, floods and storms than in high-income countries.
Currently, about 25% of the world’s population is exposed to the effects of extreme heat. By the end of the century they should be 50% to 75%. It seems like a very long term, but the changes are progressive. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased. In Brazil, around 360,000 people were displaced due to weather disasters in 2020, an increase of 18% compared to 2019.
There is urgency in the adoption of mitigation and adaptation actions. In the Brazilian context, three points are important.
First, the critical situation of destruction in the Amazon, with increased deforestation and fires. Failure to reverse this pattern could lead to savannization of the Amazon and expose between 6 and 11 million Brazilians to extreme heat, mainly affecting children, the elderly, people with comorbidities, and people living in vulnerable conditions.
Second, the urban context. The recent tragedy in Petrópolis is a cruel portrait of the disorderly urban sprawl that takes place in several Brazilian cities. MapBiomas data show an increase in informal urban sprawl in areas with slopes greater than 30% and, therefore, subject to landslides. PEC 30/2011, approved in the Chamber of Deputies on February 22, extinguishes the marine land and can lead to real estate speculation in coastal areas that are important for environmental balance and that should be preserved.
Third, the danger of drought leading to extreme hunger and mass displacement. The great drought of 1877-79 devastated the Brazilian Northeast, given the social conditions due to the lack of public policies. About 5% of the country’s population died, and the mass displacements led to the creation of barracks, concentration camps to shelter refugees from the drought. Water scarcity also compromises energy capacity. About 65% of electricity generation in Brazil depends on water. According to MapBiomas, from 1990 to 2020 Brazil lost 15.5% of its water surface.
In the Amazon, in the cities and in the Northeast, it is the most vulnerable who suffer.
As Paul Farmer, who died early on the 22nd, said, “the idea that some lives are worth less than others is the root of everything that is wrong in the world.”
Without a social policy that truly promotes inclusion and the reduction of inequalities, involving different actors in the search for solutions, the human and environmental losses will be incalculable. Humanity has the knowledge and resources to prevent these losses. There has to be more empathy and less greed.
There is still time to act and react. May we all think of this as we vote in October.
