This time the world knows what to expect: at the 29th UN Climate Conference starting today in Azerbaijan, countries have no doubt that US President-elect Donald Trump will withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement and that they will need to move on without the US government.

“The problem is common and will not be solved by itself, without international cooperation,” warned Ralph Regenvanou, the envoy of Vanuatu, a small island nation in the Pacific Ocean, as he promised to appeal “to the next president of one of the biggest polluters in the world ,” referring to the Republican.

A signature by Trump after his return to the White House on January 20 is enough for the US to withdraw from this agreement signed in 2015 by most countries in the world, with the exception of Iran, Yemen and Libya.

After the US election last Tuesday, Europeans are stressing that they will redouble their efforts to compensate for the US backing away from commitments to fight climate change, but very few European leaders will go to Baku. Neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will participate in the summit, which will be held tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday.

“The whole world knows that these negotiations are not simple,” commented German Foreign Minister Analena Burbock.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, host of COP30, will also be absent. Colombian Gustavo Petro canceled his participation due to the floods in his country and Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoff after the violent incidents against Israelis in Amsterdam.

However, the Taliban sent a delegation.

About 51,000 participants have been accredited, according to UN Climate, fewer than last year’s COP28 in Dubai. Many non-governmental organizations have criticized the fact that a major oil-producing country like Azerbaijan, where authorities still arrest climate activists, is hosting the conference.

The Paris Agreement commits the world to limit the increase in global temperature to 2°C and to continue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

Ugandan Antonia Ayebare, president of the G77+ China negotiating bloc of developing countries, warned that the two-week talks would be tough on the key stakes of this COP: how many billions of dollars the rich can pledge countries to offer as climate aid to developing countries?

“As soon as we talk about money, everyone reveals their true selves,” the diplomat said.

15 years ago at the Copenhagen COP, developed countries pledged to provide 100 billion annually. dollars in developing countries by 2020.

This money, mostly loans, allowed solar panels to be built, irrigation to be improved, dams to be built and the effects of drought on crops to be addressed.

The time has come to increase that aid, but by how much?

“Put money on the table to show your leadership skills,” Evans Nzewa of Malawi, a negotiator for the 45 least developed countries, said mainly to Europeans.

But the trend in the richest countries is austerity in Europe and international disengagement in the US. Many are calling on China and the Gulf countries to contribute more.

To this the Chinese negotiator replied that there is no question of “renegotiation” of the UN texts which stipulate that only developed countries, based on the interpretation of the UN, have the obligation to pay.

Responding to Western reservations, UN Climate chief Simon Steele underlined that it is in their interest to pay more to save the climate: “No economy, even those of the G20 countries, will survive a global warming frenzy and no household will be spared the high inflation it will cause.”

However, only four leaders of the G20 countries had confirmed their presence in Baku as of yesterday Sunday: Britain, Italy, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.