Global coal demand hit a record high in 2024, but is expected to stabilize by 2027 thanks to increased use of renewables to meet rising electricity demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

“After reaching a record high in 2024,” at 8.77 billion tons, “global demand for coal is expected to stabilize in the coming years” due to strong growth in renewable energy, the ILO said in its annual World Coal Report covering the period 2024-2027.

Global carbon trade is also expected to reach an unprecedented level of 1.55 billion tonnes, while the prices remain against 50% up from the average of the period 2017-2019.

OR China it is a “key factor”: a third of the coal consumed in the world is burned in Chinese power plants.

But demand for coal continues to rise in some emerging economiessuch as India, Indonesia and Vietnam, and is combined with economic and industrial development, underlines the ILO.

“Asia remains at the center of international carbon trade“, as all the major countries that import it (China, India, Japan, Korea and Vietnam) are located there, while Indonesia and Australia are among the biggest exporters.

By contrast, in most advanced economies, coal demand has already peaked and is expected to continue to decline until 2027, the ILO says.

“The rapid development of clean energy technologies is transforming the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of global carbon consumption,” explains Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy security and markets at the IEO.

“However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on near-term coal demand trends,” he warns.

The result of this uncertainty is that China’s coal demand by 2027 could fluctuate by 140 million tonnes above or below forecasts, depending on temperatures.