Drought, heat, very strong winds: “all these factors converged” this winter in Los Angeles and may partially explain the massive, destructive wildfires raging there, although scientists don’t blame climate change alone.

As tens of thousands of residents have been forced from their homes and at least five people have died, controversy has erupted over the expansion of the urban fabric of the second most populous US city and the management of the surrounding forests.

“We’re watching fires spread when it’s hot, dry, and windy: all of these factors are present in southern California right now“, said Christina Dahl, vice president of the scientific research organization Climate Central.

According to her, “the clearest evidence” of this is the high temperatures observed since the beginning of winter in Los Angeles, with the mercury reaching around 20° Celsius at midday.

Large fires in the winter season are rare in California. According to data from the University of Louvain, two have been recorded since 2000: one in 2017 (when 1,102 square kilometers were destroyed) and one in 2002 (23 square kilometers).

Although the cause of the fires now raging in the Los Angeles area is unknown, “human-caused climate change increases heat, which causes fires to break out,” commented Patrick Gonzalez, a climatologist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Due to climate change “the temperature has increased by two degrees in southern California since 1895,” he added.

2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record in the US, which is true for other countries as well, and scientists are reminding that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.

The current fires are the result of “the perfect conditions” for this type of disaster, said Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa of the UK-based Center for Ecology & Hydrology.

California was affected in 2024 by the El Niño phenomenon which caused heavy rainfall and consequently an increase in vegetation during the first half of the year. The second half saw drought in the southern part of the state.

From July 1, 2024 to January 5, just four millimeters of rain fell in downtown Los Angeles, far below normal.

“The current fires in California are unprecedented, in the sense that they are unusual for this time of year,” said Apostolos Voulgarakis, a meteorologist at Imperial College London, who noted that California’s fire season is “extending.”

A recent report by the UN Environment Program concluded that the number of particularly severe fires will increase by 14% by 2030, by 30% by 2050 and by 50% by the end of the 21st century.

But other man-made factors have contributed to the current situation.

Californians are increasingly moving into fire-prone areas as housing costs along the Pacific coast continue to rise.

This is the case, for example, in the Lake Tahoe region of the Sierra Nevada on the border between California and Nevada, which is attracting more and more new residents despite the increased risk of wildfires.

The management of the state’s vast forests has also come under the microscope.

California authorities burn more than 500,000 acres of vegetation every year, but no one knows if that’s enough.

The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, estimated that “these fires could easily have been avoided”, but “the absurd regulatory rules in California prevent any action”.

For his part, the newly elected president of the USA, Donald Trump, estimated that the Democratic governor of California, Gavin Newsom, is “responsible” for this “real disaster”.