Reassuring experts are now experts on the issue of the “ozone hole”, as they emphasize it is not the same source of concern as it once was.
“It’s not the same source of concern as it once was,” said Laura Revel, an associate professor of environmental physics at Canterbury University in New Zealand.
This is largely due to the actions taken by governments around the world to address the problem.
In fact, there are indications that the ozone hole has begun to close – and that the situation has more or less improved as expected, says Susan Solomon, a researcher at the American Institute for the Ocean and the Atmosphere.
According to scientific estimates, the ozone layer is expected to return to pre-1980 levels around the middle of the century. Healing is slow due to the long lifespan of ozone-depleting molecules. Some of them remain in the atmosphere for 50 to 150 years before decomposing.
However, the problem persists and the ozone hole forms every spring over Antarctica.
It then closes during the summer, as stratospheric air mixes with it from lower latitudes, “repairing” it until next spring, when the cycle begins again.
In addition, despite the overall success of the Montreal Protocol, there have been delays. In 2018, for example, the concentration of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11), which have been banned since 2010, did not appear to be declining as fast as expected, which means that there are unrecorded emissions somewhere on the planet.
The Environmental Protection Agency identified the emissions at factories in China, which used them to make insulating foam. As soon as this information was made public, the Chinese government took strict measures and scientists say we are on the right track again.
For Jonathan Shanklin, a meteorologist at the British Antarctic Research Institute, this underscores the enormous importance of monitoring environmental variables such as CFCs, temperature and biodiversity indicators.
“If we do not monitor them, then we do not know if we have a problem or not, and if we do not know if we have a problem, we can not take precautionary measures and I believe this is a key part of the whole story,” he said.
Risks are expected in the future as well. Large volcanic eruptions usually lead to short-term losses in the ozone layer, while nitrous oxide, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted when using fertilizers in agriculture, is also a powerful ozone-depleting substance. “However, it is not controlled by the Montreal Protocol and emissions are increasing,” said Laura Revel.
SOURCE: MONEYREVIEW- BBC FUTURE
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