June’s cool start in northern Europe is going to give way to one summer with extreme weather, upsetting energy markets increasingly dependent on solar and wind energy.
Warm gaseous masses are expected to appear later this month, bringing the risk of heat this summer after an abnormally dry and sunny spring. This will increase the demand for energy to cool, although the impact on gas prices will also depend on increased solar production and nuclear production levels in France.
“This summer seems to be a summer with a lot of impact on energy,” said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at the Atmospheric G2. “We will hear a lot about extreme phenomena,” he said.
Further south, the Mediterranean is already experiencing unusually high for the season, with temperatures, which reached almost 39 degrees Celsius in Seville on May 30th, the warmest day in Spain for May since 1950. Together with the Balkans and Southeast Europe, this region is in the area Metdesk.
Even the Scandinavian countries are expected to have temperatures above average for most of the period, according to data from the European Center for Medium Term Meteorological Forecasts.
What do specialists predict this summer
High temperatures in June are expected to be extended and repeated throughout the summer, according to prediction models. In addition, wind energy production will be reduced, while solar energy production will be launched at a high level, the Bloomberg news agency notes.
Many basic rivers across Europe, including the Rhine, have recovered from the low levels of levels caused by the warm, dry periods this spring.
Heavy rainfall and snow melting have raised river levels, after a dry, warm spring, but extreme heat could reverse the situation, especially in the Alps, where hydroelectric reservoir levels in Switzerland are much lower than normal.
“The risks resulting in hydroelectricity due to drought remain,” according to an Inspired PLC note.
“In the coming months we will see this play in real time, if we look at the warm days, then the reduction in wind production will mean that gas will be called upon to meet the demand for cooling,” said Nick Campbell, CEO of Inspired. “This will raise the cost,” he said.
Nephoches forecasts are unusually low in many areas, increasing the prospect of a record for sunshine and solar production, especially in the southeast.
“This is a truly powerful signal,” said Tod Crawford, Vice President of the Atmospheric G2 meteorology. “I haven’t seen such a signal from the models.”
Electricity and gas traders will carefully consider developments throughout the summer, as Europe’s growing dependence on renewable energy has enhanced the role of weather changes, according to Marco Saalfrank, head of trade in the continental Europe.
“As a result, weather events now have a more direct and significant impact on the market,” Saalfrank said in an interview.
Source: Skai
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