Koronovirus: The good and the bad scenario for the pandemic- Tzanakis explains to SKAI | Skai.gr

The peak of the pandemic in the first days of December with the number of cases ranging between 7,000 and 8,000, predict the models developed by the professor of Pulmonology at the University of Crete, Nikos Tzanakis.

Speaking to SKAI and the show “Unmatched”, he noted that two scenarios have been prepared, although he expressed the assessment that eventually good will prevail.

“The good scenario shows that we will go to a peak of the cases in the first days of December, but the peak of the pipelines and the deaths will come 2-3 weeks later. The increase we see is in the 200-300 cases in addition to what we have today. Other days will be just over 8,000, others around 7,000 and others below 7,000. However, in the holidays we will have an escalation of the hard indicators “, pointed out Mr. Tzanakis.

Regarding the bad scenario, the peak of the pandemic is expected in mid-January with 8,000-9,000 cases and certainly with more intubation and deaths.

Especially for the number of deaths from Covid, the professor stressed that the 3,000 deaths he had predicted for the October-December quarter may be a conservative estimate. “I wish there were 3,500 and not 4,000 deaths. “2,049 deaths are already recorded and we still have 1.5 months ahead of us,” he said characteristically.

Regarding the measures that have been taken and especially the increased testing, he stated that they seem to restrain the outbreaks of cases, stressing, however, the need for further measures to be taken by citizens over 65 years of age. “We must take measures to protect the unvaccinated, but which are not in line with a restriction, which makes their personal and social life very difficult. We should mainly focus on the vaccinated over the age of 65. As of July 1, we had 4,500 deaths, of which 3,379 deaths, or over 85%, were over 65 years old. “90% of them were unvaccinated,” he explained.

Vaccinations

Regarding the vaccinations, Mr. Tzanakis said that what they are trying to achieve is to turn the pandemic into an endemic, so that the citizens pass it like a cold, the society is not pressured and the conditions of suffocation in the hospitals are not created.

He gave an example. The University of Crete has been operating for 2 months, with 85% -90% of students, professors and administrative staff being vaccinated. During this period, only 55 cases have been recorded in a population of 20,000 people, who have a high social workload. “If you make the correspondence with 60% of the vaccinated people all over the country, it turns out that in the community (all over Greece) you are 6 times more at risk of getting sick than in the university. “This is the difference between 60% of vaccinated and 85%,” he stressed.

At the same time, addressing the Deputy Minister of Education, Zetta Makri, asked her to reconsider the issue of school trips, so as not to put entire families at risk. “Schools organize 5-day and 7-day excursions in areas that are in the red, for example in Thessaloniki. The ministry needs to look at the issue again and move them to perhaps a more accurate epidemiological element. “We can not send the children to the wolf’s mouth and come back and have problems,” he said characteristically.

Long: Only 0.1% of cases are students

For her part, Ms. Makri pointed out that this is an issue that was discussed at the Ministry of Education and it was decided to make the trips with increased control before and after, for the fullest protection of both children and parents.

At the same time, he stressed that schools do not lead the pandemic, but follow it. “There are cases in schools, which in terms of the student population, are of the order of 0.1%. The departments that are closed at the moment are 6, that is 0.1 per thousand and in total in the last 10 days it was 0.3 per thousand “, he noted and clarified that no new measures are being studied for the schools.