In the year 2009in its echo of the global financial crisis, Alan Iny undertook it Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s first script-based project for the future. The desired; What would the future of rail transport look like 15 years from now?
The team drew up several scenarios for the “distant” 2024. Based on one of these, technology would offer so many possibilities in the field of VR and AR (virtual and augmented reality), that people could do everything from home – so passenger transport would be weakened and only those of goods would be developed. Under another scenario, the EU would disintegrate, re-establishing different national rules and documents on rail transport, which would mean interoperability of the system.
What is the data for the year 2022? The EU has not disbanded. And it was not technology, but a pandemic, that locked people in the house. So was the writing of the scripts in vain? “We did not anticipate the pandemic when in 2009 we drafted the script for work and leisure from home. Also, we did not predict it BREXIT in the scenario of the dissolution of the EU. In fact we had in mind the debt crisis that many EU countries were facing at the time … But, it does not matter that we did not predict the pandemic or BREXIT, because the companies that took the “These scenarios were ultimately better prepared than competing for work from home or the UK leaving the EU,” said Alan Inny, Global Leader for Creativity and Scenarios at Boston Consulting Group in New York. at the 7th Delphi Economic Forum.
«The point of scenarios is not to predict what will happen, but to be better prepared for things we can not predict. If we are willing to challenge our beliefs, expand our perceptions and think about how to prepare for all these somewhat “wild” scenarios, then we can think “what are the moves that I will not regret at all?” what are the possible moves for which I should prepare, but not pull the trigger, before I see how things turn out? “,” what bets can I place?” points out.
In what potential worlds are businesses likely to operate in 2027?
No one can predict the future, but what are, based on the prevailing scenarios, the possible worlds in which businesses might operate five years from now? «I will not talk about the chances of a script being fulfilled, but I can cite some examples. Imagine a world that is the logical evolution of today, but in a more extreme form, in which things evolve at two poles: in one are the USA and many European countries and in the other China, probably Russia and North Korea, with India trying to play on both sides.
A world where there is strong competition between the two “blocs” and where innovation is born at the same time in two places, where you have Google against Huawei or Tesla against the Chinese car industry, so there is a new, cold corporate war between East and West. But imagine a completely different scenario, where there is isolation of countries, where the EU is dissolved, Belgium is divided into three, Spain into two, etc., and everyone is focused only on their home. Imagine also a scenario where everyone works together to fight the climate crisis, inequality, the need for vaccinations in Africa and where there is an efficient UN. All of these scenarios are theoretically possible. Every time I read newspapers in the morning, I look for clues, early warnings that something is going to happen, “weak signals”. The question is how we can monitor these weak signals, to better prepare. We can always argue that one or the other scenario is more likely, since no one knows what will happen, but preparing for each of these scenarios can strengthen our strategy.Says Alan.
Weren’t the pandemic and the war “black swans” after all?
As he says, we may feel that the pandemic, a war in Europe or a major terrorist attack like the one in the Twin Towers are gripping us with hexapine, but is that really so? Are these really extremely unexpected events, what are described as “black swans”?
«Was the Covid-19 really a “black swan”? We had early indications that this was likely to happen, through Ebola and SARS, and perhaps we could have been better prepared to deal with it. Similarly, with regard to the attacks of September 11, 2001, eight years ago we had an attack on the parking lot of the World Trade Center. Some will say, OK, it’s easy to say things afterwards, but there were all these clues! I will not make predictions about what might come in the future. Who knows what might happen to China and Taiwan or if something will “block” the Suez Canal not for a week but for a year or if for some reason we lose access to the planet’s…… I’m not saying all this will happen, but there is good reason to try to be prepared for possible shocks. There is a huge competitive advantage for those who are more preparedHe notes.
How is the so-called “advantage over uncertainty” built? The example of “McLaren” in “Formula 1”
According to Alan Ini, leaders could “build” the advantage that allows companies and organizations to evolve in the midst of uncertainty through specific steps: the first step is to develop mechanisms for better understanding of facts, data, trends and of uncertainties. This, he says, is relatively easy, but anyone who wants to build on the “uncertainty advantage” must be able to take the next step: decisive action.
Indicatively mentions the case of the “McLaren” racing team in Formula 1. “Like all teams they have a control center in England, but there they do something different from the rest. They have tested thousands of different scenarios: which tires to use, when exactly to refuel, etc. So they are better prepared than the competition to make the necessary adjustments during the race – because they have tried everything before. So they go one step further and in addition are able to lobby the Formula 1 boards for new regulations (in racing)Says Alan Ini.
Imagining the future seems less important than dealing with the present. Is there a gold section?
«It is a very common and natural human instinct to focus on the short term. When a fire breaks out, we have to deal with the fire. In March 2020, everyone was concerned with the immediate, immediate effects of Covid-19, and today everyone is concerned with the direct impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is a very human characteristic. However, when we move beyond the short term, when we develop the ability to look – at the same time as the urgent – and what is likely to be important in the medium term, then we gain a major advantage.He explains.
As he says, in March 2020, in the field of hospitality and travel for example, many companies – hotels, resorts, cruise companies – had big problems because of Covid-19, but one of them, “Expedia”, managed to present stock return 20% higher than the competition on the same basis. Why; Because he suddenly started focusing on medium-term leases, instead of hotels, pivoting and refocusing on the more medium-term horizon in some things.
«In March 2020 it was easy to say that “Zoom” or “Peloton” did very well, because everyone used the platform or the home bikes respectively, but their performance did not last. The share yield of both later decreased. Those left high in the midst of the crisis were companies such as Expedia and Amazon, which have been investing in durability for years, seeking not just luck because the times may favor them.He emphasizes.
Why do cars have brakes?
According to Alan Ini, the more we perceive uncertainty as a two-sided currency – opportunity and challenge – the better we will move in the future, as there is huge potential for those who are willing to prepare better.
«Why do cars have brakes? If you thought “for safety”, “to stop”, “to slow down”, your thought was very logical, but cars have brakes for an additional reason: to be able to move faster. When you are a driver and you have good medium vision and the ability to be flexible and agile, the fact that you know you have the brakes and the ability to use them, helps you move faster. The same goes for businesses. When they have the above characteristics, they can better understand uncertainty and develop a stronger strategy, even in all these things that surround us. This is what I call “uncertainty advantage” ends up.
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