Ankara’s rhetorical sharpening is due in part to Mitsotaki visit in America that has bothered Turkey, tells SKAI and Apostolos Maggeriadis the Director of Eurasia Group Emre Packer, one of the most authoritative analysts for modern Turkey based in London. Mr Packer points out that this rhetoric must be seen in the light of the domestic political situation in Turkey, which is not enough to save it politically. Erdogan.
Question: Dr. Peker, we are witnessing a continuous escalation on the part of Turkey. Foreign Minister Tsavousoglou said that we will question the sovereignty of Greece in the Aegean islands if Greece does not proceed with their demilitarization. Is this a war threat and how credible do you think it is?
Emre Packer: Thank you for calling me, Apostle. I do not think this is an immediate threat of war. I think this is more a response to Prime Minister Mitsotakis and his speech to Congress and Turkey to use the current veto situation against the accession process of Finland and Sweden to express its traditional grievances and push the allies to some solutions. The issue of militarization in the Greek islands and the battles in the Aegean have been going on for decades. And this is not a new issue. So I think we more or less see a recurrence of existing problems coming to the fore again.
Question: Right? But what we have been experiencing in recent weeks is a huge increase in the level of Turkish rhetoric.
Emre Packer: Yes, that’s right. But as I said, I think he is following the Prime Minister’s speech to Congress, which really did not go well in Ankara, especially since President Erdogan usually really values ​​personal relationships and promises. And the fact that Athens tried to tackle a bilateral issue in the US really got it wrong. So I think we will hear more of this rhetoric in the coming weeks until there is a way out of rhetorical de-escalation.
Question: Should we see this nationalist rhetoric as part of the domestic political game in Turkey as well, or is it a degradation of a real danger if we look at it that way?
Emre Packer: I think it’s a bit of both. There is definitely a domestic element because, as you know, the economic situation in Turkey is quite tight at the moment and the government is responsible for the mismanagement of the situation with unorthodox monetary policies and so on. Thus, foreign policy distractions are always welcome, but I think there is a limit to how much this nationalist rhetoric and this “supremacy”, either against Greece or for the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, can help Erdogan and the government to regain their percentages in Turkey. And there is a broader kind of dynamic foreign policy in all of this. But again, I think this is more a repetition of existing grievances than an attempt to create new avenues of conflict, hot or cold.
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