Estimating that Turkey will maintain tension with Greece as a weapon for voter mobilization, he SKAI the well-known analyst Ronald Maynardus. However, as reported in Journalist Nandin Pardons does not believe that the Anchor will dare an episode especially after the public statements against her from France, Germany and USA.
Read the interview in detail:
SKAI journalist question:
Turkey’s provocation against Greece is obviously gone. After the overflights over Greek islands, he now and directly questions their dominance with vain arguments. How do you interpret this tactic?
Ronald Maynard
ELIAMEP Researcher – Head of the Mediterranean Program:
We are indeed observing an escalation of Turkey’s hostile actions against Greece and it has both quantitative and qualitative dimensions.
For the first time, the sovereignty in Greek territories in specific islands of the Eastern Aegean is questioned. This is a very serious fact and more or less related to the developments internationally and the war being waged in Ukraine that we see on many fronts internationally such worrying developments
SKAI journalist question:
Do you think that the immediate condemnation of Ankara’s aggression by France – Germany and the State Department is enough to restrain the Turkish leadership? And finally, how determined are these allies to act decisively if Turkey goes no further?
Ronald Maynard
ELIAMEP Researcher – Head of the Mediterranean Program:
There are many fronts. And there is a domination in the West, maybe the first issue is the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, which Turkey vetoes, there is also Syria, it is also the big issue of the Aegean. And all this is a group of topics and it becomes a huge bargain on various levels. I believe that in the case of Syria it will be difficult for it to back down because it has already deployed its army. With Greece, I believe that with Greece this tension will be maintained. And there is a theory that Erdogan will probably make a concession on the issue of NATO. Of course, he will lose the great strict leader internally, but he will have in his back the issue of Greece, which is suitable to mobilize his voters.
SKAI journalist question:
How do you decipher the clear position taken by Germany towards the Turkish provocation after a year for many of neutrality.
Ronald Maynard
ELIAMEP Researcher – Head of the Mediterranean Program:
Years I would not say. I think the position of Germany and every EU member state It is a given that it defends the integrity of the Member States and of course of Greece. The EU made a very clear statement in February when Turkey launched the issue of demilitarization of the islands. And pretty much the statements we see these days are the same. Western positions are known but not repeated every day. We read every day in the Greek press about the challenges and reactions. This game of verbal warfare is not played by Western powers
SKAI journalist question:
Because you said before that you think Turkey will keep the high tones at a rhetorical level. Do you think there is a possibility that he will pull the rope in the field with one episode?
Ronald Maynard
ELIAMEP Researcher – Head of the Mediterranean Program:
We see an incident in Syria where a military operation is taking place. Each case is different. I can not imagine – I say so emphatically – that something similar will happen in the Aegean where Greece and Turkey will be rivals. But we said and we can not imagine Russia intervening in Ukraine.
But there is a bad case of an accident. In the summer of 2020 we had such a case and that is why the allied countries are worried and that is why they are now trying to find a solution, but it is very difficult, because Erdogan’s fear is to appear in the electorate as a weak man and escalate with Greece and the West in general is a huge weapon in his hands to mobilize voters in Turkey.
