The great economic problems in Turkey and the fall of the AKP in the polls, lead Tayyip Erdogan to other ways out, such as artificial crises and nationalist outbursts.
By Antonis Anzoletos
The Greek parties are in the pre-election period analyzing the polls of the companies, making comparisons per month, at the same time giving a basis for the qualitative data of the measurements. Is it just the internal research that is of interest this summer? The escalating Turkish provocation makes polls conducted in the neighboring country are particularly important. Because everything is explained in some way. According to the latest research from ORC Research Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Tayyip Erdogan shows precipitation falling to 27.7%. It is recalled that in 2018 he had received 42.6% at the polls. Together with his current partner Devlet Bahceli seem to reach only 35%. At the moment, the total opposition has a percentage of more than 42%.
“The only way to turn the tide against him is to hold elections in a crisis environment.” This phrase of experienced internationalists deciphers the methodology of escalation followed by the Turkish president in view of the 2023 summer elections. The possibility of setting up early ballot boxes seems almost impossible as the AKP “leafs”. Time is now an ally of Erdogan, although the sand in the hourglass will slowly begin to run out.
The Turkey’s major economic problems, 70% inflation, the collapse of the pound, and the impoverishment of the people have led Tayyip Erdogan to look for other ways to stay in his palace in Ankara. He made it for himself, after all. He is in a political stalemate and a possible defeat, his opponents say, could trigger other legal proceedings in relation to his actions. However, it shows that he can not recover and change the image inside him with artificial crises and nationalist outbursts no one can rule out the use of other methods, which will not have democratic bases, as he has the ability to have complete control over the system of power.
Before the most extreme scenarios are implemented, which are not based on substantiated data but only on concerns, Syria is expected to be the first and main target relieving his aggression while returning a large number of refugees. Satisfying to a large extent its internal audience. Is that enough? The personal attack he unleashes on him Kyriako Mitsotaki is part of an overall plan to escalate aggression in Greek-Turkish. The wider environment, however, does not suit the Turkish president. The war in Ukraine and NATO, which is in a state of war, have isolated Ankara, which is still experiencing unrest in the region. Legitimacy and international law are at the forefront of all allies. Crucial will be the pressure he will receive at the North Atlantic Alliance Summit in Madrid on March 30-31 to lift his objections to the accession of Sweden and Finland. Based on logic and in this environment the possibility of a hot episode could be estimated to be removed. For the unpredictable Erdogan, however, exercises with logic have proven to be unsafe.
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