The bar of autonomy in ND – SYRIZA and the polarization of the second elections

By Antonis Anzoletos

The equation of autonomy want to settle in her camp Ν.Δ. at the time of SYRIZA seek to find the ally to form the progressive governance. Necessary and sufficient condition to achieve the goal of both parties is one: The first in the elections. So far, the primacy of the blue faction is not disputed by the polls that see the light of day. Both show a slight increase in the latest measurements. The official opposition has achieved that the difference is no longer in double digits.

With the simple analog voted by SYRIZA in the summer of 2016 the bar of autonomy seems to be impossible. Assuming that the sum of the parties that stay out of Parliament reach 10% the first party should have one percentage over 45% in order to form government with a marginal majority and without the need for collaborations. Of course, the more parties enter Parliament, the higher the bar of autonomy. It exceeds 48% if the forces that do not get the ticket for Parliament are only 4%. Indicatively, in 2019, 8% of the parties that took part in the elections did not participate in the “300”.

These high percentages, over 45%, in national elections were recorded, except for 54.37% of Konstantinos Karamanlis in 1974, in 1981 PASOK (48.07%), 1985 PASOK (45.82%) and h SW in 1990 with Konstantinos Mitsotakis (46.88%). The 1993 the return of Andreas Papandreou was achieved with an impressive 46.88% and in 2004 Costas Karamanlis had become prime minister with a percentage of 45.36%.

Things are completely different with law restoring the bonus and the ND voted in 2020. It is escalating and the autonomy, of course, again depends on the number of parties that will be in the Plenary. It is estimated that if the percentage of parties outside Parliament is about 10%, the threshold for the absolute majority of “151” is 37.5%. They consider this goal to be highly achievable in the government. THE polarization of the latter elections claim that will significantly increase the numbers of the blue faction. This is the reason why in SYRIZA – if the first does not come in the simple proportional – they want to have the smallest possible difference with the ND in order to achieve the overthrow in the second elections. In any case, the two “big ones” estimate that the pressure that PASOK will receive will be great. Either on the issue of collaborations or in its percentages. With this reasoning, the constant references and “nails” to Nikos Androulakis by both Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Alexis Tsipras are not accidental lately.